Last analysis of gold expected an end to a fourth wave correction to be followed by a sharp upwards thrust to about 1,399.73. This is what happened.
The question now is, is this intermediate degree correction over? Have we just seen a trend change back to the downside for gold?
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C within a cycle degree wave IV.
Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.
Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted eight weeks and may now be almost complete. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.
When the structure on the hourly chart is complete then we need to look for confirmation that intermediate wave (4) is over. If this current daily candlestick closes down, is red, that shall be a strong indicator of a trend change.
When we have confirmation on the hourly chart that we have seen a trend change then I will add to the target calculation for primary wave C at intermediate wave degree. I may be able to do this for you tomorrow.
At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.
Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.
Main Hourly Wave Count.
This hourly chart a good overall look because within minute wave v minuette waves (ii) and (iv) are nicely in proportion.
Draw a parallel channel about minor wave C using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the low of minute wave ii (you can see this on the daily chart) to minute wave iv, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end mid way within this channel. When this channel is breached by downwards movement we shall have trend channel confirmation that minor wave C is over, and intermediate wave (4) is extremely likely to be over.
Minute wave iv ended as a zigzag with a slightly truncated C wave, not as a triangle. Within the zigzag subminuette wave b was a time consuming double combination.
Minute wave iii is slightly shorter than minute wave i. This limits minute wave v to no longer than equality with minute wave iii at 1,423.84.
At 1,416 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).
If minuette wave (iv) is not over and continues further sideways then it may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This hourly wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,381.94.
Alternate Wave Count.
It is possible to see a completed five wave impulse for minute wave v. We may have just seen a trend change at intermediate wave degree.
There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.
Ratios within minor wave C are: minute wave iii is 2.62 short of equality with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.
Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.23 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).
We need to see confirmation of this trend change before having confidence in it.
Firstly, movement below 1,381.94 would provide initial indication this wave count may be correct.
Second, movement below the parallel channel here on the hourly chart would provide trend channel confirmation that minor wave C is over and the next wave is underway.
Third, movement below the parallel channel on the daily chart would provide channel confirmation that the zigzag of intermediate wave (4) should be over.
Finally, price movement below 1,348.27 would provide confirmation that the upwards movement labeled intermediate wave (4) is a three wave structure and is corrective, because at that stage downwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within an unfolding impulse upwards.