Last analysis expected upwards movement, but required a trend channel breach of the channel on the hourly chart before confidence could be had in a trend change. We have the breach now and a trend change confirmed, but price moved lower first.
This is exactly why I use trend channels; they are an integral part of Elliott wave analysis.
The wave count is mostly the same. A target can now be calculated for upwards movement to end.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.
Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.
A parallel channel drawn about minor wave B is now clearly breached by upwards movement on the hourly chart, with an overshoot here on the daily chart. This channel breach indicates that minor wave B is over and now minor wave C is underway.
At 28.121 minor wave C would reach equality with minor wave A.
Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.216.
Within minor wave B minute wave c is just 0.11 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave a.
Within minor wave C minute wave i is probably complete. Minute wave ii may be complete or it may continue further as a flat correction. If it moves lower then the target for minute wave iii must move correspondingly lower also.
At 26.09 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.
Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.216.
Thanks a lot for your analysis. Do you think silver will not correlate to gold?
ummmm….. they do?
I need to update my gold monthly and weekly charts. I’ll do that today. When that is done if you compare my weekly silver chart here to the monthly gold chart I’ll publish today you will see I’m expecting the same for them. It is the wave count which was previously my alternate, recent movement indicates it is now more likely. I indicated in daily analysis it changed, but I haven’t updated the historical analysis to reflect this. That may be causing some confusion, sorry about that.
However… they do not always turn together. Check this out.
I know this is a really unpopular view but when I do EW analysis I treat each market as separate. I do not expect markets to move together or effect each other (with the sole exception of USD index and EURUSD because the USD index is made up of several currencies of which the Euro is the largest). That is a popular view, but it is a fundamental analysis viewpoint. EW is mutually exclusive with fundamental analysis.