Last analysis expected more downwards movement with a series of fourth wave corrections along the way. Price has moved higher, remaining comfortably below the invalidation point, and has now turned to move lower.
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This is the main wave count with the highest probability. Flat corrections are extremely common structures, particularly in fourth waves. Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat, and primary wave 4 may exhibit alternation if it is a more common expanded flat or a still common regular flat. Primary wave 4 may also exhibit alternation if it is shallow; primary wave 2 was very deep.
Primary wave 2 lasted 53 weeks. It would be likely that primary wave 4 will continue for longer to be better in proportion to primary wave 2.
It is most likely that primary wave 4 is not over and is unfolding as a large flat correction. Within the flat intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete double zigzag. Within the second zigzag of this double, labeled minute wave y, minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated at this stage and for some time yet with movement above 1,532.90.
Within the flat correction intermediate wave (B) must be at least 90% the length of intermediate wave (A). This wave count requires more downwards movement to this minimum at 1,205.74.
Within an expanded flat the B wave is 105% the length of the A wave, so this wave count allows for a new low as quite likely, because expanded flats are the most common type of flat.
Intermediate wave (B) would be about three or so weeks away from ending.
Upwards movement was probably a fourth wave correction. Micro waves 1 and 3 have no Fibonacci ratio to each other, and it is more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between micro wave 5 and either of 3 or 1. At 1,241 micro wave 5 would reach equality in length with micro wave 1. This short term target may be met within the next 24 to 36 hours.
Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 3.12 short of 1.618 the length of submicro wave (3).
Within micro wave 4 submicro wave (C) is just 0.68 longer than 2.618 the length of submicro wave (A).
Micro waves 4 and 2 show perfect alternation: micro wave 2 was a very deep 82% expanded flat, and micro wave 4 was less deep at 56% and a zigzag.
When micro wave 5 is complete I will expect another upwards correction for subminuette wave iv. Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,294.78.
I have drawn a parallel channel about this downwards movement using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of micro waves 2 to 4, place a parallel copy upon the low of micro wave 3. I would expect micro wave 5 to end about the lower edge of this channel.
The mid term target remains the same. At 1,209 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
Alternate Daily Wave Count.
This wave count has the lowest probability because it would see primary wave 4 as having lasted only 9 weeks. Compared to primary wave 2 having lasted 53 weeks, this lack of proportion gives this alternate wave count the wrong look at the weekly chart level. This significantly reduces the probability of this wave count.
This alternate expects very strong downwards movement as the middle of a third wave unfolds. If the next wave down shows a very strong increase in momentum then I would more seriously consider this alternate.
At 1,174 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.
Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,352.90.