Last analysis expected more upwards movement towards a short term target at 1,306. Price has moved higher, well exceeding the target, but remaining below the invalidation point.
The wave count remains the same and I have a new alternate for you today.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
This is the main wave count with the highest probability. Flat corrections are extremely common structures, particularly in fourth waves. Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat, and primary wave 4 may exhibit alternation if it is a more common expanded flat or a still common regular flat. Primary wave 4 may also exhibit alternation if it is shallow; primary wave 2 was very deep.
Primary wave 2 lasted 53 weeks. It would be likely that primary wave 4 will continue for longer to be better in proportion to primary wave 2.
It is most likely that primary wave 4 is not over and is unfolding as a large flat correction. Within the flat intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete double zigzag. Within the second zigzag of this double, labeled minute wave y, minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated at this stage and for some time yet with movement above 1,532.90.
Within the flat correction intermediate wave (B) must be at least 90% the length of intermediate wave (A). This wave count requires more downwards movement to this minimum at 1,205.74.
Within an expanded flat the B wave is 105% the length of the A wave, so this wave count allows for a new low as quite likely, because expanded flats are the most common type of flat.
Intermediate wave (B) would be about three or so weeks away from ending.
Subminuette wave ii is now a completed three wave structure. Micro wave C is 4.61 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave A.
Ratios within micro wave C are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between submicro waves (3) and (1), and submicro wave (5) is 2.34 short of 1.618 the length of submicro wave (1).
I have adjusted the parallel channel about this correction slightly. The first trend line is drawn from the start of the correction to the low of submicro wave (2) within micro wave C, then a parallel copy is placed upon the high of micro wave A. When this parallel channel is clearly breached by downwards movement, with at least one or two full hourly candlesticks below the channel and not touching the lower edge, then I will have some confidence that the correction is over and the next wave down is underway.
The next wave should be the middle of a third wave, and so should show a strong increase in downwards momentum.
The mid term target remains the same. At 1,209 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,330.09.
Alternate Wave Count.
The prior alternate remains valid, but this alternate has a better probability.
Overall the bigger picture remains the same as for the main wave count- a flat correction is unfolding for primary wave 4. Within the flat correction intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete double zigzag.
For this alternate within the second zigzag of the double minute wave a may have completed as a leading expanding diagonal. Within leading diagonals subwaves 1, 3 and 5 are more commonly zigzags but may also be impulses. If one of these three actionary waves is an impulse it is normally the third wave, and it is very unusual for all three of the actionary waves to be zigzags. In this instance all of minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v) subdivide as impulses which must reduce the probability of this wave count.
Within this wave count minute wave b would also most likely be complete. This wave count also expects downwards movement next.
If the main wave count is invalidated with upwards movement then this alternate may be a good explanation. It is possible that minute wave b may not be over and could continue further as a double zigzag or combination.
Minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,352.90.