Yesterday’s analysis expected more upwards movement from Gold towards a short term target at 1,298 within one or two days. So far price has reached up to 1,294.43 and the structure is incomplete.
I now expect this fourth wave correction to end within a few hours.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. It is now more likely to continue as a double combination because within it intermediate wave (X) should be deep.
The purpose of double combinations is to take up time and move price sideways, so I would now expect intermediate wave (Y) to end about the same level as intermediate wave (W) at 1,433.83. Double combinations in fourth wave positions are quite common.
Within the combination intermediate wave (X) is unfolding as a zigzag. Minor wave C downwards must complete as a five wave structure. At 1,206.05 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.
There is no lower invalidation point for intermediate wave (X); X waves may make new price extremes beyond the start of W waves, and they may behave like B waves within flat corrections. For combinations X waves often end close to the start of W waves.
I have drawn a parallel channel about the zigzag of intermediate wave (X) using Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B. Place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. I will expect minor wave C to find support at the lower end of this channel, and it may end there.
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Minute wave iv has moved higher as expected and now has lasted two days. If it is over within the next 24 hours then it would have lasted three days in total and be nicely in proportion to minute wave ii which lasted four days.
Minute wave ii was a shallow 36.5% regular flat correction of minute wave i. Minute wave iv appears to be exhibiting alternation in both structure and depth of correction. So far it is unfolding as a double zigzag which is relatively deep, over the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii.
Draw a parallel channel about minor wave C. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minute wave ii. Minute wave iv to has found resistance at the upper edge of this channel, but it should break through if this structure is incomplete and should overshoot the channel. If it does this then I will redraw the channel using Elliott’s second technique: the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii to iv, with a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii.
Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,306.15.
When minute wave iv is complete I will add to the target calculation for minor wave 5 downwards to end at minute wave degree, so the target is calculated at two wave degrees. The target at 1,206.05 may change or widen to a small zone.
Alternate Wave Count.
Up until two days ago this was been the main wave count. Its counterpart for Silver was invalidated and so I would expect Gold to follow with an invalidation of this wave count within another two or three days.
This alternate looks at the possibility that primary wave 4 is a double zigzag, and that the second zigzag is underway.
Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,251.76.
So far to the upside there are five waves, but this cannot be counted as a simple impulse because there is too much overlapping. This may be a series of first and second waves. Upwards momentum is slowly increasing which would be expected for this wave count.
Within the middle of this possible third wave micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,278.26.
Any comment on how gold and oil for this last 24hrs have very similiar price action??
Elliott wave analysis treats each market as a separate individual market. Each has it’s own wave count.
I know this is a very unpopular view, but it’s the one I have.
Although I do understand (because the charts tell me) that gold and silver do tend to have the same dates for minor and intermediate wave endings (turnings).
Is wave V really to be nearly $100 long?
And if it does go that far down, will it not likely retest 1180 support again?
At the time this analysis was done the only degree I could use to calculate this target was minor degree. And yes, the fifth wave could most certainly be extended. It’s common for commodities.
And yes, as I explained it could retest 1,180 support.
When I know where minute wave iv has ended that target will be calculated at a second wave degree also. The idea is to find a figure where more than one wave degree target calculation converges to a similar point. Then we can have a target zone with a good probability.