Again upwards movement was expected. New highs and an increase in momentum were expected, and this is exactly what happened. The wave count remains the same.
Summary: At this stage price should continue to move higher and may show a further increase in momentum. The target remains the same at 1,297 and may now be one to two days away.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. To see a full explanation of my reasoning for expecting that primary wave 4 is not over and is continuing see this.
Movement above 1,277.97 has provided confirmation that primary wave 4 is not over. This upwards movement cannot be a fourth wave correction within primary wave 5 as it has now moved into what would be its counterpart first wave price territory. The wave down from the high labeled intermediate wave (W) to the low labeled intermediate wave (X) is now confirmed as a three wave structure. Primary wave 5 cannot subdivide as a three, it can only subdivide as a five.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat correction, and was a deep 68% correction of primary wave 1. In order to show alternation in structure primary wave 4 may be a zigzag, double zigzag, combination, triangle or even an expanded flat. We can rule out a zigzag because the first wave subdivides as a three. This still leaves several structural possibilities.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a combination or triangle in order to show structural alternation with the running flat of primary wave 2.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a combination rather than a double zigzag because of the depth of intermediate wave (X). Double combinations take up time and move price sideways, and their X waves can be very deep. Double zigzags are different because their purpose is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough, so their X waves are not normally very deep. Thus intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction, less likely a triangle and least likely a zigzag. It is most likely to end about the same level as intermediate wave (W) at 1,434 so that the whole structure moves sideways. It may last about 43 to 89 days, depending upon what structure it takes.
If intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction then within it minor wave B must retrace a minimum of 90% the length of minor wave A, and it may make a new low below 1,180.84.
If intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction then within it minor wave A must subdivide as a three wave structure. At this stage minor wave A is unfolding as a zigzag because minute wave a within it completed as a leading diagonal which is a five wave structure. At 1,330 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Draw a channel about the zigzag of minor wave A: draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. Downwards corrections along the way up should continue to find support at the lower edge of the channel, and upwards movement may end at the upper edge of the channel.
Upwards movement subdivides as an incomplete impulse. With a clear increase in upwards momentum this may be the middle of subminuette wave iii over. Alternatively, if upwards movement shows a further increase in momentum the degree of labeling within subminuette wave iii may be moved down one degree and this may be only micro wave 1 almost complete. It makes no difference to targets at this stage.
The short term target remains the same and may be about one or two days away now. At 1,297 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
Within subminuette wave iii micro wave 3 is 0.32 shorter than equality with micro wave 1. This limits micro wave 5 to no longer than equality with micro wave 3 which may be achieved at 1,287 (if micro wave 4 does not move lower).
Within subminuette wave iii micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,267.92.
If this wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,267.92 within the next 24 hours then I would expect it could be another second wave correction. I would move the degree of labeling within subminuette wave iii all down one degree and the invalidation point would be at its start at 1,254.84.
Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.
It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.
The expected direction of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.
Intermediate wave (C) must unfold as either a single or double zigzag. Within it no second wave correction, nor wave B of the zigzag, may move beyond the start of the first wave or A wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,180.84.
The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.
All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.
Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.