The situation for GDX remains exactly the same as last Elliott wave analysis.

Click charts to enlarge.

For GDX the main and alternate wave counts have exactly the same subdivisions, only the degree of labelling differs. This means it is impossible at this stage to determine which is correct, and in my judgement they have a completely even probability.

A-B-C and 1-2-3 have exactly the same subdivisions as they both subdivide 5-3-5. This main wave count requires a new low below 20.42 for confirmation.

At this stage a new high above 23.22 would substantially reduce the probability (but not finally invalidate) of this wave count. If this happens the alternate will be strongly preferred.

Alternatively, if this main wave count is correct then downwards movement should begin to build momentum as a third wave begins.

This wave count moves everything within intermediate wave (5) up one degree to see it as a complete impulse.

Within the new upwards trend a clear five up should develop on the daily chart. Within that minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 20.42.

Minor wave 2 looks like a zigzag. Minor wave 4 is probably incomplete, and may continue sideways to be better in proportion to minor wave 2 (although GDX does not always have nicely proportioned waves). If minor wave 4 is a flat correction it would exhibit alternation with minor wave 2. This may include a new high above 23.22 for minute wave b, because within a flat the B wave may move beyond the start of its A wave. If this happens this alternate would be strongly favoured.

At first glance it looks like minor wave 4 may be unfolding as a triangle, but that does not fit. Minute wave c would be slightly below the end of minute wave a which is invalid for a contracting triangle.

Lara, GDX Bull count invalidated today with low at 20.37. Does that increase the probability for Gold Bear count?

Lara,

Assuming that your GDX Daily count is correct, how will minor wave 3 fit within primary A’s target zone ($14.13)?

If I project blue 3 to equal “only” 100% of blue 1 that brings us down to around $12 and if I project blue 3 at a typical 161.8% of 1 the answer brings us close to zero and it’s sub-level after that.

Even it this turns out to be a tight ending diagonal, blue 3 has to edge below $16.45 and thats only a couple of dollars away from your target… The ending diagonal would have to have a very tight count…

Thank you for the update Lara. It seems the main would line up with the gold counts.