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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th February, 2015 – Update

by | Feb 4, 2015 | Gold | 43 comments

Just one quick Elliott wave hourly chart to update most recent movement.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart 2015

Minuette wave (ii) is moving a little higher, and it is not quite complete. At 1,275 micro wave C within the second zigzag of this double would reach equality in length with micro wave A. This would bring minuette wave (ii) to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i).

When it is over redraw the base channel.

When it looks like it may be over then a subsequent new low below the start of micro wave C at 1,259.64 would provide price confirmation that minuette wave (ii) is extremely likely to be over, and the middle of a third wave down should have begun.

43 Comments

  1. Pjay on February 5, 2015 at 4:18 pm

    Miners really need to start moving soon. Volume has been decreasing along with bollinger bandwidth for GDX for example, where there was approx. 50% decrease today compared to avg volume. What gives??

  2. MTLSD on February 5, 2015 at 4:08 pm

    I guess we will wait one more day….or two, or three…

  3. Richard on February 5, 2015 at 3:25 pm

    There an important US Jobs Update coming out Friday 8:30 am and some think it will make gold go down and some think it may make gold go up.
    “Traders and investors are awaiting Friday’s January U.S. jobs report, which is arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month. Forecasts call for the key non-farm payrolls number to be up 237,000 in January. A significant miss to the upside or downside is likely to cause higher markets volatility.”

  4. Richard on February 5, 2015 at 2:38 pm

    With DUST and JDST gold needs to go down during market hours instead of up. Gold going down between market close and open means have to sell DUST and JDST near the open then switch 3X ETF trading direction for the few early bounces. Or wait several days hoping gold continues down.
    The miners go up fast as gold retraces during market hours. Or wait and get in for the best parts of the third and fifth wave to rally down. Maybe figure out all the fibonacci retracement points each day and trade then.

  5. Richard on February 5, 2015 at 2:01 pm

    How high is the Fibonacci .618? retracement expected today.

    • papudi on February 5, 2015 at 2:18 pm

      Richard
      From 1274 to 1256= 18
      18x.618= 11
      1256+11= 1266

      • Richard on February 5, 2015 at 2:19 pm

        Thanks

      • Pjay on February 5, 2015 at 3:01 pm

        1266 being tested just now.
        I’m hoping for the downward momentum to kick in the last 15 min of market hours and see if we finally get the gap down at open tomorrow that we’ve been patiently waiting for.

  6. papudi on February 5, 2015 at 1:42 pm

    Any one is wave ii over?

    • Richard on February 5, 2015 at 1:46 pm

      Gold hit 1258.87 has went below 1259.64 at 6 am for price confirmation minuette wave (ii) extremely likely over and minuette (iii) has begun.

      • papudi on February 5, 2015 at 2:00 pm

        Thanks Richard. If this is the case than gold should head down tomorrow.

        Time to buy dust/jdst at close???

  7. SZ on February 5, 2015 at 12:47 pm

    Lara, what are your expectations for length of this downtrend time wise for both the main and alternate counts. Thanks!!!

  8. MTLSD on February 5, 2015 at 12:44 pm

    GDXJ Chart that I am watching…

    • papudi on February 5, 2015 at 1:24 pm

      What time frame is this plot? Nice chart!!
      Appears BO.

      • MTLSD on February 5, 2015 at 3:17 pm

        its a 5-minute chart. Yes, it was broken shortly after I posted it.

  9. Syed on February 5, 2015 at 12:31 pm

    With gold price below 5dma/20dma and hovering at 50% retrace of 1392/1131, I am just thinking, don’t expect to see gold price much above 1267-73 now….

  10. Chapstick_jr on February 5, 2015 at 12:09 pm

    Was just thinking a triangle needs to be considered. My guess is that’s what Lara’s count will be this afternoon.

    • Piotr on February 5, 2015 at 12:22 pm

      Yeah but if this is the case, tHis would imply gold is still in 1 wave and this is only minor 4.

      • Chapstick_jr on February 5, 2015 at 1:20 pm

        ?????? how about b wave triangle with c to follow towards $1200?

        • alex77 on February 5, 2015 at 1:33 pm

          So are you talking about a zig zag correction from the top ~1308 ? Both of Lara’s counts are looking for a 5 down from the top . So that means you are looking at some alternate daily bullish count and this is wave 4 ?

          • Chapstick_jr on February 5, 2015 at 1:48 pm

            Triangles occur in b waves or x waves meaning the preceding wave can be a 3 or 5

          • alex77 on February 5, 2015 at 1:56 pm

            Yeah this not working . I need a picture .

    • alex77 on February 5, 2015 at 1:25 pm

      According to Lara , triangle can’t occur for 2nd wave position . I don’t know what is the count but I am not a believer in current hourly count at all .

  11. Piotr on February 5, 2015 at 11:58 am

    Possible count

  12. Piotr on February 5, 2015 at 11:52 am

    Now it goes to 1270 😀

  13. Syed on February 5, 2015 at 11:37 am

    Hurray! It would now be nice to see a break below the recent 1255.80 low…. Brilliant work by Lara. Thank you so much!

    • papudi on February 5, 2015 at 11:52 am

      Gold needs to drop below 1252 not 1255.
      Concern here is that gold keeps bouncing up from 1255 area to 1263.

      Lara said it will take one day to 3 days.

      • Syed on February 5, 2015 at 12:49 pm

        True, a break below 1252 would be welcome. For now the downside is being defended by 1257-56 with upside risk 1286/96….

  14. Richard on February 5, 2015 at 11:20 am

    Gold dropping at 11:17 am

  15. papudi on February 5, 2015 at 11:12 am

    Gold is down at the opening and miners are up. Miners trending general market.

  16. MTLSD on February 5, 2015 at 10:56 am

    Looks like a trend change in miners on the 1 min and 5 min.

    • davey on February 5, 2015 at 11:08 am

      Which direction are miners headed?

      • MTLSD on February 5, 2015 at 11:18 am

        down….broke down out of the uptrend channel at 10:53 central.

  17. papudi on February 5, 2015 at 10:43 am

    Gold needs to turn here or it made triple bottom???
    Get rid of shorts???

  18. Richard on February 5, 2015 at 9:53 am

    Gold hit 1258.87 has went below 1259.64 at 6 am for price confirmation minuette wave (ii) extremely likely over and minuette (iii) has begun.

  19. Chapstick_jr on February 5, 2015 at 7:06 am

    Well we did trade below $1259.64 about 15 min ago albeit ever so slightly

    • zakopiec on February 5, 2015 at 2:16 am

      In my view is 50 to 50 down on up. I still see possible 5 wave up. When I see first red candle on daily chart then I know downtrend is very possible

  21. Syed on February 4, 2015 at 10:56 pm

    JUST A VIEW: Very interesting set-up. The Gold Bulls are stronger today with price finding support at 1262/56-55…. A good upside move is expecting targeting a break above 1276-77 although thus far 1274-75 has curtailed the upside. Taking out 1296 will seal it targeting a break above 1313. There is however a strong cluster of overhead resistance / retracement zone between
    1281-87/90 that would need to be overcome…. Is Gold price showing early signs of bottoming?

    • cahauhan m on February 4, 2015 at 11:24 pm

      can u post chart, for this expectation

  22. MTLSD on February 4, 2015 at 10:00 pm

    Thank you Lara.

  23. davey on February 4, 2015 at 9:49 pm

    Lara, your occasional updates on the forum and here, on a chart, are appreciated.