US Oil continues to behave as expected.

Summary: Upwards movement is very close to completion. The target is at 64.39.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014
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This wave count sees US Oil as within a big super cycle wave (II) zigzag. Cycle wave c is highly likely to move at least slightly below the end of cycle wave a at 32.70 to avoid a truncation. Cycle wave c may end when price touches the lower edge of the big teal channel about this zigzag.

Within cycle wave c, the degree of labelling has been moved up one degree. Cycle wave c is unfolding as an impulse. Within it, primary waves 1, 2, 3 and now almost 4 are complete. This wave count expects primary wave 5 to be extended which is typical for commodities. When primary wave 4 is complete, then a price target for primary wave 5 may be calculated.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 91.76.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014
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Primary wave 2 was a deep 0.78 double combination structure. Given the guideline of alternation, primary wave 4 may be expected to be more shallow and most likely a zigzag, flat or triangle. At this stage, it looks like primary wave 4 is unfolding as an expanded flat correction. This provides some structural alternation with the combination of primary wave 2.

Within primary wave 4, intermediate wave (C) has passed 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (A) and the structure is still incomplete. Intermediate wave (C) may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (A). Minor wave degree would be better to calculate a target for this upwards movement to end.

The channel about cycle wave c is drawn here as a best fit. Primary wave 4 may find resistance about the upper edge, and this may be where upwards movement ends.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014
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Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure, and is unfolding as an impulse.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 1 and 3. This makes it more likely that minor wave 5 will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either minor waves 1 or 3. At 64.39 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. This ratio may be more likely because it does not allow too much of an overshoot of the upper edge of the best fit channel which is copied over here from the weekly chart.

Draw a channel about intermediate wave (C) using Elliott’s first technique. When there is at least one full daily candlestick below the lower edge of this blue channel and not touching the lower blue trend line, that shall provide trend channel confirmation that intermediate wave (C) is over. At that stage, it would be extremely likely that primary wave 4 in its entirety is over and primary wave 5 down would have begun.

In order to reach the target at 64.39, primary wave 4 will have to break through resistance at the upper edge of the downwards sloping maroon channel. Sometimes fourth waves are not contained within these channels. If that happens as expected, then the channel will be redrawn using Elliott’s second technique to show where primary wave 5 down may find support.