15 thoughts on “US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2015

  1. Does it make more sense that we just experienced a sharp wave 4? This could be a viable alternate count. Wave {1} (blue) would have to be a leading diagonal of some kind. That whole trading range is murky.

    1. I’ve looked into that idea in detail on the hourly chart.

      There’s a problem with the leading diagonal. To fit the rules for wave lengths of a leading contracting diagonal the fourth wave has to have not one but two truncations, the first one quite large. To me that looks really forced.

      I don’t think that move was a diagonal.

  2. On 8H chart its forming a H&S pattern with 2nd shoulder in progress and it has reached the peak. Now it will complete its 2nd shoulder and will go in the range of $20

  3. What day did you exit your short on oil? Could you send me an email each time you change your position long, short or cash? Thanks. Joe

    1. I was stopped out at 42.48 on the 27th. I only entered the short at 42.79 on the 18th so my profit was small.

      I had expected the trend to continue for longer and I wanted to hold the trade.

      No I am not going to be emailing anyone when I enter and exit trades.

    1. I think the market is answering. It’s not over.

      Furthermore, I’ll be producing US Oil analysis as if I’ve prepared it for myself in my own trading. Because that’s exactly what I’m doing.

      I want to enter another short, and I’m not going to try and pick the high. I’m waiting until the structure looks complete, I can draw a channel around it and the channel is breached. Then I’ll wait for a throwback to the channel.

      Only then will I try another entry.

      Picking the high is a fools game, guaranteed to give you losses. I avoid unnecessary losses.

      1. Lara oil retraced 0.44 of wave (1). AND is heading down. Once it breaks the channel and back test what will be the price???

        Oil is better trade than gold. Thanks for your help.

        1. There is no red daily candlestick at this stage.

          Upwards movement is on increasing volume.

          There are too may indicators pointing to more upwards movement. I’m not expecting it’s over yet, and I’m not going to give a price for the next wave down if I don’t think it’s begun.

          1. I agree with your trade perspective here. To trade this corrective upwards movement is risky, especially when this corrective wave has begun already—-you don´t know what shape, duration, or gyrations it may do, so for me it´s a foolish game too.
            My approach here is to be (mentally) prepared to run the next wave down, which should be highly profitable. EW tools are handy to identify the best shot when this occurs. Maybe by the end of September….who knows.

        2. On the hourly chart I can only see a five up.

          A three down should follow, then another five up.

          This correction is probably not even halfway through.

          I’ll be waiting patiently for it to be over. When I can see a possible complete three I’ll update the analysis and outline my approach for finding an entry point.

          And again, I will not be trying to pick the high / end of the correction.

          When it may be over I’ll be updating what I’m looking for to confirm it’s over and exactly how / when I’ll enter a short.

      2. Lara, thanks, I’ll be watching your updates. Like your entry style. Very interesting you pick oil for a ride.

        1. I like it because it tends to be slow and moderate. Not too volatile. I don’t like volatile markets for trading.

          Which is why my favourite is NZDUSD.

          1. Lara. Probably a similar selection criteria for ocean waves? Knowledge of and feel for ocean waves helps with elliott waves–just an opinion.

          2. LOL

            I ride a huge longboard, 9’6″, so I like smaller waves, nicely formed, peeling. I’ve got an old school mal board from the 1960’s for even smaller days, 9’9″, and the thing’s a log! Dangerous if not handled carefully.

            Exactly the same as my trading actually 🙂

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