A brief Elliott wave count and technical analysis of the Euro.
Summary: I am expecting the Euro is ready to begin a third wave down at primary degree.
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
I think that minor wave 5 may be extending only because the last upwards swing is a deep correction.
Minor wave 5 may reach equality in length with minor 3.
Price keeps finding resistance at the upper edge of this Elliott channel. This looks like a good entry point to join the trend. Risk may be assessed as just above the upper edge of the channel or at the invalidation point, depending upon risk appetite.
ADX indicates no clear trend. ATR is flat. This does not support the Elliott wave count at this stage.
Price is bound between the two closest horizontal lines. However, a small series of lower highs and lower lows supports the Elliott wave count slightly as it indicates a potential downwards trend.
On Balance Volume is finding resistance at two trend lines, and support at two.
A downwards break by OBV would increase confidence in the Elliott wave count. An upwards break would mean that the fourth wave correction may be continuing.
The last rise in price came on an increase in volume. This is bullish and does not support the Elliott wave count. The prior fall in price came with some increase in volume. This does support the Elliott wave count.
The picture is mixed but on balance I have enough confidence in the Elliott wave count to attempt a short here, with careful risk management. The reward is high enough. If the Elliott wave count is right, then price may still be very close to the beginning of a primary degree third wave.
This analysis is published @ 03:51 a.m. EST.