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A correction was expected. A likely place for it to end was at 1,093.

Price moved lower to reach 1,092.4 and turned up from there.

Summary: Upwards movement should now increase in momentum. A new high above 1,112.19 is expected. The target for the bear wave count remains 1,135. The target for the bull wave count is at 1,227 mid term. If the bear market trend line is breached along the way up, then the bear wave count may be discarded or relegated to an unlikely alternate.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last published weekly charts with the bigger picture are here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Gold has been in a bear market since September 2011. There has not yet been confirmation of a change from bear to bull, so at this stage any bull wave count would be trying to pick a low which is not advised. Price remains below the 200 day moving average and below the cyan trend line. The bear market should be expected to be intact until we have technical confirmation of a big trend change.

That technical confirmation would come with a breach of the upper cyan trend line by at least one full daily candlestick above and not touching the line. A new high above 1,191.37 would provide full and final price confirmation.

The final line of resistance (cyan line copied over from weekly charts) is only overshot and not so far properly breached. Simple is best, and the simplest method to confirm a trend change is a trend line.

Minute wave ii is a complete zigzag and deep at 0.73 the length of minute wave i.

At 941 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minuette wave (i) is complete.

Minuette wave (ii) looks like a fairly typical expanded flat correction which may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 1,135.

Subminuette wave c may be unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal. Ending diagonals require all subwaves to subdivide as zigzags. No second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave at 1,082.74 within submicro wave (C).

The diagonal must be expanding because micro wave 3 is longer than micro wave 1, and micro wave 4 is longer than micro wave 2. The trend lines diverge. Micro wave 5 must be longer than micro wave 3, so it must end above 1,125.13.

There is still the possibility that minuette wave (ii) could be labelled as complete at the last high. If it was over, then the only structure I can see which would fit is a double combination. But double combinations are sideways structures; they should not have a slope against the trend one degree higher. This correction has a clear slope. For that reason I still do not want to publish this idea because the probability is too low. I will only publish it if price breaks below 1,058.42.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Micro wave 5 upwards is underway and must subdivide as a zigzag.

The diagonal is expanding, so micro wave 5 must be longer than micro wave 3. Micro wave 5 would reach equality with micro wave 3 at 1,125.13. It must end above this point.

The target will remain the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 1,135. The cyan line, the final bear market trend line on the daily chart, should provide strong resistance for this wave count.

Submicro waves (A) and (B) are complete within micro wave 5. Submicro wave (C) is underway and must subdivide as a five wave structure.

So far minuscule waves 1 and now 2 are most likely complete. Minuscule wave 3 must move above the end of minuscule wave 1 at 1,109.31, and it should show an increase in upwards momentum.

So far subminuette wave c in its entirety has lasted 23 days. If it exhibits a Fibonacci number, it may complete in a total 34 days which would see it continue now for a further 9 days. This is a rough expectation only; it may not exhibit a Fibonacci number.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This was published here as a second alternate wave count. I will use it as the only regular alternate bull wave count because it is the only bull wave count to meet all Elliott wave rules.

I want to remind members that last time Gold saw a reasonable upwards movement from 24th July, 2015, to 15th October, 2015, there were many who expected that rise meant the bear market had ended and a new bull market had begun. It turned out that idea was premature: price turned around and made new lows. On 21st August I developed three bullish wave counts, partly in response to a demand from members, and one by one they have all been eliminated.

Now, again, price rises and there is a demand for bullish wave counts.

It is my strong view that this is premature. I will publish this wave count with that strong caveat.

Eventually the market will change from bear to bull, and when that change is confirmed that is the time to have confidence in a bull wave count. That time is not now.

Price remains below the 200 day moving average. Price has made a series of lower highs and lower lows down to the last recent low. There is not a clear five up on the daily chart. Price remains below the bear market trend line. While price remains below that line this wave count will be an alternate and comes with a strong warning that it is premature.

Downwards movement from the all time high for this bull wave count is seen as a big double zigzag which would most likely be complete at super cycle degree for an A wave.

When an A wave subdivides as a three, then the larger structure may be either a flat or triangle. The B wave may make a new price extreme beyond the start of the A wave within flats and triangles. Here, super cycle wave (b) may move above 1,920.18 as in an expanded flat or running triangle.

When the first move of a larger correction subdivides as a multiple (w-x-y), then a combination may be eliminated. Combinations may not have multiples within multiples, because that would increase the number of corrective structures within a multiple beyond three and violate the rule.

A new wave up at super cycle degree must begin with a clear five up on the daily chart (and probably the weekly as well). So far only minor waves 1 and 2 are complete. At 1,227 minor wave 3 would reach 4.236 the length of minor wave 1.

Minute waves i and ii are complete within minor wave 3. The acceleration channel is not working, so a more conservative base channel is drawn about these two waves. Copy it over to the hourly chart. A lower degree second wave correction for minuette wave (ii) should not breach a base channel drawn about a first and second wave one or more degrees higher. The lower pink line should provide support, if this wave count is correct.

Minuette wave (ii) should now also be complete. A third wave at three degrees may be in the very early stages. Within minuette wave (iii), no second wave correction may move below the start of its first wave at 1,071.36. Minuette wave (iii) may only subdivide as an impulse. I will leave the invalidation point lower than for the bear at this time for this bull wave count. When the base channel is breached by upwards movement, then a third wave would be confirmed. At that stage, it would be appropriate to move the invalidation point higher. For now this market may need room to move.

For the short term, along the way up, for this wave count downwards corrections may find some support at the cyan trend line.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Again, short to mid term, both wave counts expect exactly the same direction from Gold next. Also, both expect an upwards trend is in place. The subdivisions are the same.

Price is finding support at the cyan line. This line may continue to be useful. Expect price to bounce up from this line each time price comes down to touch it.

The small channel about micro wave 2 is breached. This may be confirmation that micro wave 2 should be over and micro wave 3 should now be underway. The upper edge of the channel may now provide support.

Within micro wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,092.4.

This wave count now expects to see a third wave up at five degrees. A strong increase in upwards momentum would be expected, if the bull wave count is correct.

Minuette wave (iii) must move above the end of minuette wave (i) at 1,112.19. It must move far enough above that point to allow for subsequent downwards movement for minuette wave (iv) to unfold and not move back into minuette wave (i) price territory.

When the base channel is breached to the upside, then look for the upper edge to provide support.


Gold Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A long legged green doji represents indecision, a balance between bulls and bears. On balance the bulls are winning: the doji is green and the lower leg is longest.

Lighter volume for this day is not concerning for the wave count. There will be smaller corrections along the way up in this upwards trend. Today was a correction. This supports the Elliott wave counts.

ADX and ATR remain clear. There is a trend. The trend is up.

On Balance Volume has breached the upper peach trend line today. This may be taken as an indication that price will shortly break out upwards. OBV works well with trend lines in my experience.

Neither RSI nor Stochastics are overbought. There is room for price to rise.

This analysis is published @ 06:31 p.m. EST.