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A little more upwards movement was expected.

Price has moved slightly higher.

Summary: Price is squeezed between the final bear market trend line and a short term support line (now coloured green on all charts for clarity). A break above the cyan line or below the green line is required. The bear wave count is favoured and better supported by volume analysis; this upwards movement is weak and should be expected to end here or very soon. The bull wave count still comes with the strong caveat that we have zero confirmation of a super cycle degree trend change from bear to bull for gold.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last published weekly charts with the bigger picture are here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Gold has been in a bear market since September 2011. There has not yet been confirmation of a change from bear to bull, so at this stage any bull wave count would be trying to pick a low which is not advised. Price remains below the 200 day moving average and below the cyan trend line. The bear market should be expected to be intact until we have technical confirmation of a big trend change.

The final line of resistance (cyan line copied over from weekly charts) is only overshot and not so far properly breached. Simple is best, and the simplest method to confirm a trend change is a trend line.

Minute wave ii is a complete zigzag and deep at 0.73 the length of minute wave i.

At 941 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minuette wave (i) is complete.

Minuette wave (ii) looks like a fairly typical expanded flat correction which may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 1,135.

Subminuette wave c may be a complete ending contracting *Edit: expanding diagonal.

Price should find resistance at the final bear market trend line. If that line is breached, it would indicate a trend change from bear to bull. If that happens, then this bear wave count would be relegated to an unlikely alternate.

I added an important trend line which is currently offering support to current upwards movement to this daily chart. The trend line is coloured green (to differentiate it from the cyan bear market trend line). It is vital that this green line is clearly breached by downwards movement before confidence may be had that minuette wave (ii) is over. While price continues to sit above this line, it is entirely possible that upwards movement may continue and may even overshoot the bear market trend line before turning down.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A slight new high may be the end of the fifth wave for submicro wave (C), which has unfolded as an impulse.

Submicro wave (C) sits neatly within its Elliott channel (drawn in red).

Submicro wave (C) is now just 0.39 longer than 0.382 the length of submicro wave (A).

Ratios within submicro wave (C) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuscule waves 3 and 1, and minuscule wave 5 is now just 0.12 short of 0.382 the length of minuscule wave 3.

Initial indication of a possible trend change would come with a clear breach of the red channel containing submicro wave (C) on the hourly chart.

Thereafter, further indication of a trend change would come with a clear breach of the green trend line which is copied over here from the daily chart.

1,108.61 is the start of submicro wave (C). A new low below this point could not be a second wave correction within submicro wave (C), so at that stage submicro wave (C) would have to be over. This would provide confidence in a trend change.

A new low below 1,092.4 would invalidate the alternate wave count below and provide further confidence in this main wave count.

The invalidation point will remain at 1,191.37, as it is on the daily chart, while we have no confirmation that the upwards trend has ended. This is the risk posed at this stage from this wave count.

When there is some confirmation of a trend change, then the invalidation point for the hourly chart will be placed at the high of minuette wave (ii).


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This was published here as a second alternate wave count. I will use it as the only regular alternate bull wave count because it is the only bull wave count to meet all Elliott wave rules.

I want to remind members that last time Gold saw a reasonable upwards movement from 24th July, 2015, to 15th October, 2015, there were many who expected that rise meant the bear market had ended and a new bull market had begun. It turned out that idea was premature: price turned around and made new lows. On 21st August I developed three bullish wave counts, partly in response to a demand from members, and one by one they have all been eliminated.

Now, again, price rises and there is a demand for bullish wave counts.

It is my strong view that this is premature. I will publish this wave count with that strong caveat.

Eventually the market will change from bear to bull, and when that change is confirmed that is the time to have confidence in a bull wave count. That time is not now.

Price remains below the 200 day moving average. Price has made a series of lower highs and lower lows down to the last recent low. There is not a clear five up on the daily chart. Price remains below the bear market trend line. While price remains below that line this wave count will be an alternate and comes with a strong warning that it is premature.

Downwards movement from the all time high for this bull wave count is seen as a big double zigzag which would most likely be complete at super cycle degree for an A wave.

When an A wave subdivides as a three, then the larger structure may be either a flat or triangle. The B wave may make a new price extreme beyond the start of the A wave within flats and triangles. Here, super cycle wave (b) may move above 1,920.18 as in an expanded flat or running triangle.

When the first move of a larger correction subdivides as a multiple (w-x-y), then a combination may be eliminated. Combinations may not have multiples within multiples, because that would increase the number of corrective structures within a multiple beyond three and violate the rule.

A new wave up at super cycle degree must begin with a clear five up on the daily chart (and probably the weekly as well). So far only minor waves 1 and 2 are complete. At 1,227 minor wave 3 would reach 4.236 the length of minor wave 1.

Minute waves i and ii are complete within minor wave 3. The acceleration channel is not working, so a more conservative base channel is drawn about these two waves. Copy it over to the hourly chart. A lower degree second wave correction for minuette wave (ii) should not breach a base channel drawn about a first and second wave one or more degrees higher.

The daily chart is on a semi-log scale and the hourly chart is on an arithmetic scale. This means channels sit slightly differently between these charts. The base channel has been breached now by upwards movement on both charts. The base channel on the hourly chart on an arithmetic scale is today perfectly showing where downwards movement is finding support. It may continue to do so.

Only submicro wave (1) may be complete within micro wave 3. This is shown on the hourly chart.

Gold often exhibits swift strong fifth waves, particularly the fifth waves to end its third wave impulses. Be aware of this tendency, because it could mean that any one of or more than one of micro wave 5, subminuette wave v, minuette wave (v) and minute wave v could be very strong upwards movements. If this is the case, then for this wave count it would take price comfortably above the final bear market trend line. If that happens, then this wave count would be the preferred wave count.

The hourly chart for this alternate today will show the same piece of movement as the main hourly chart.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This bull wave count now expects that there are seven first and second waves complete within a big third wave up. This indicates a strong increase in upwards momentum ahead, if this wave count is correct.

While price continues to find support at the upwards sloping green line, which is the same on all daily and hourly charts today, the risk that this wave count is correct will remain.

However, we have no technical confirmation of a trend change for Gold from bear to bull. There is no confirmation that this wave count is correct.

At 1,158 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Minuscule wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minuscule wave 1 below 1,122.36.

If the green support line is breached, then the probability that price is entering the middle of a big third wave would be very low because the middle of third waves normally show an increasing slope, not decreasing.


Gold Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price has come up to touch the 200 day SMA today which should provide strong resistance.

The volume profile again strongly favours the main bear wave count. As price has made a new high, again it is not supported by volume as volume declined.

ADX and ATR continue to disagree. ADX indicates there is a trend and it is up, and price has been making higher highs and higher lows. But with ATR declining this is not a normal trend. This makes sense for the bear wave count; this upwards movement is the end of a correction.

On Balance Volume is still finding support at the green line. If that line is breached by OBV, it would support the main bear wave count. If OBV breaks above the dark blue line, that would support the alternate bull wave count. If OBV comes up to touch that dark blue line, it should first find resistance there.

RSI is not extreme and shows no divergence with price.

Stochastics still shows weak bearish divergence with price.

This analysis is published @ 07:48 p.m. EST.