Price has moved sideways since last analysis.
The Elliott wave count remains valid.
Summary: A new high above 1,260.93 by any amount at any time frame would provide confidence that Gold is most likely in a fifth wave up. Fifth waves for commodities can be swift and strong. The first target is at 1,295. If price keeps going up through the first target, the next target is at 1,338. If downwards movement continues, these targets must move correspondingly lower.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
Last published weekly chart is here.
DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Gold has very likely changed from bear to bull.
So far, within the first five up, the middle of the third wave is now most likely complete. The strongest move may still be ahead. Gold often exhibits swift strong fifth waves typical of commodities. Minor wave 5 may be strong and may end with a sharp upwards day on a volume spike.
Ratios within minor wave 3 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v is just 0.07 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave i.
Minor wave 2 was a very deep 0.97 double zigzag lasting nine days (one more than a Fibonacci eight). Minor wave 4 may be complete today as an expanded flat correction lasting seven daily candlesticks (one less than a Fibonacci eight). This gives the wave count a reasonable look in terms of proportions. There is perfect alternation between the deep double zigzag of minor wave 2 and the very shallow 0.23 expanded flat correction of minor wave 4.
Minor wave 4 is within the price territory of one lesser degree. Minute wave iv has its range from 1,261.94 to 1,190.9.
At this stage, it looks like minor wave 4 may be over but this is not confirmed by price. The invalidation point must remain at 1,088.79 while there is no confirmation. Prior to confirmation, this is the risk today with this wave count.
Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 1,088.79.
HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Minor wave 4 may now be complete as an expanded flat correction. Within minor wave 4, minute wave b was a 1.09 correction of minute wave a. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.
Ratios within minute wave c are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (iii) and (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.12 longer than 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
Within minuette wave (iii), the third wave of subminuette wave iii shows strongest volume.
Within minuette wave (v), the third wave of subminuette wave iii shows strongest volume.
Minuette wave (iii) has stronger momentum than minuette wave (i) and minuette wave (v) has stronger momentum than minuette wave (iii).
This wave count fits with momentum and volume.
1,260.93 is the start of minuette wave (v). If minuette wave (v) is not over and extending further, then within it no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. A new high above 1,260.93 could not be a second wave correction within minuette wave (v), so at that stage minuette wave (v) would have to be over. This would provide some price confirmation of a trend change.
It is possible that the expanded flat structure is the first flat in a double flat for minor wave 4, or only wave A of a larger flat for minor wave 4. A five up at the hourly chart level would eliminate this possibility.
It is very likely that minor wave 4 is over today because the wave count has the right look with good proportions at the daily chart level. If it were to continue further as a double flat, it may begin to be out of proportion.
If minor wave 4 has ended here, then at 1,295 minor wave 5 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. If price keeps going up through this first target, or when it gets there the structure of minor wave 5 is incomplete, then the next target is the next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence. At 1,338 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.
So far it looks like there may be a small five up on the hourly chart, although minuette wave (i) will also subdivide as a zigzag. What is clear today is the following downwards movement labelled minuette wave (ii) is a three wave structure.
There is still no confirmation of a trend change. In the first instance, a breach of the channel about minute wave c would provide earliest confirmation. When price breaks above the channel look for a throwback to test the upper edge for support. If price behaves like that, it would offer a reasonable low risk entry to join the trend.
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Three days in a row now of red candlesticks (on StockCharts data) on clearly declining volume indicates that the fall in price is not supported by volume, so is suspicious.
During the consolidation which began on 7th March, it remains an upwards day which has strongest volume. This indicates an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards.
ADX is declining, indicating the market is not trending. ATR for the last day is also declining.
On Balance Volume has come down to find support at the short orange trend line. This line is not long held, but it has been tested three times now and is almost horizontal. It has some technical significance. A break below this line would be a bearish signal. If OBV turns up from this line, the strength would be reinforced and would be a bullish signal. A break above the blue and green lines by OBV would be further bullishness.
RSI is now very close to neutral. This correction has resolved RSI being overbought. Stochastics has also returned from overbought. There is room for price to rise or fall.
This analysis is published @ 07:10 p.m. EST.