A little upwards movement to about 1,328 was expected for Monday.
Price moved higher to 1,328.04.
Summary: Look out now for surprises to the upside. In the short term, a spike down to about 1,311 – 1,312 may complete a small pull back. Thereafter, price should turn upwards to new highs. The target for the Elliott wave count for a third wave to end is at 1,585.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
Last weekly charts are here.
Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.
DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Thereafter, this wave count differs from the two alternates.
This main wave count will expect primary wave 3 to be longer than primary wave 1. Because this is very common, this is the main wave count. It expects the most common scenario is most likely. At 1,585 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).
Intermediate wave (2) may now be complete ending just below the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) and lasting 40 days. However, prior to a new high above 1,330.01, it must be accepted that intermediate wave (2) may yet move lower. Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07
Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.
At this stage, a new high above 1,330.01 could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so at that stage minute wave iv and minor wave C would have to be over. A new high above 1,330.01 would provide strong confidence in a trend change and the resumption of the prior upwards trend.
Redraw the pink channel now about minute degree waves as shown using Elliott’s first technique: the first trend line from the ends of minute waves i to iii, then a parallel copy on the end of minute wave ii. Draw a channel about intermediate wave (2) using Elliott’s technique for a correction (blue lines). Price is finding support at the lower edge. The lower edge of this channel may stop price from falling further.
With this wave count expecting a third wave at two large degrees to begin, look out for surprises to the upside at this stage.
HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Minor wave C is most likely to be over, which means intermediate wave (2) is most likely to be over.
Intermediate wave (3) may only subdivide as an impulse. Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 1 should last a few days at least, so it would be incomplete.
Minor wave 1 would most likely unfold as an impulse, but it may also be a leading diagonal.
Upwards movement for Monday’s session to the high at 1,328.04 subdivides best as a zigzag. This may be minuette wave (b) within an expanded flat correction for minute wave ii. At 1,311 minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a). This is very close to 1,312 where minute wave ii would reach the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i, giving a $1 target zone for the correction to end.
Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,302.93.
In the short term, if price makes a new high above 1,328.04 before moving lower, then the analysis of minuette wave (b) as a completed zigzag is wrong. At that stage, minuette wave (b) would be expected to be continuing higher. The normal range for minuette wave (b) within a flat would be from 1,327.30 to 1,331.26. If price moves above 1,331.26, then probability would shift to seeing minute wave ii over and minute wave iii upwards underway.
Intermediate wave (1) lasted 27 days and intermediate wave (2) lasted 40 days. Intermediate wave (3) may be reasonably expected to last longer than intermediate wave (1) in both time and price. A Fibonacci 55 days would be a first expectation.
ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Both hourly wave counts today see minute wave iii over at the low for 30th of August.
Minute wave iv may be unfolding as an expanded flat correction. These are very common structures. Within minute wave iv, minuette wave (b) is a 1.65 length of minuette wave (a). This is longer than the common length of up to 1.38, but within the allowable convention of up to 2 times the length of minuette wave (a).
The structure of minuette wave (c) may now be complete. There is almost no room left for minute wave iv to move into.
The final fifth wave up of subminuette wave v does not look as good as a five as it does as a three. It may be either and both possibilities should be considered.
This alternate still has a lower probability.
Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. Any movement by any amount on any time frame above 1,330.01 would immediately invalidate this alternate wave count.
ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
It is possible that primary wave 3 is over and shorter than primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 shows stronger volume than primary wave 1 (see technical analysis weekly chart).
If primary wave 3 is over, then the current consolidation for Gold would be primary wave 4.
Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.35 expanded flat correction. Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a deeper zigzag which would exhibit perfect alternation.
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,282.68.
Primary wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3, so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. Primary wave 5 would have a limit at 1,477.77.
The hourly charts would be exactly the same except for the degree of labelling.
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Last week made an important new low, slightly below the prior swing low of 18th of July. Price thereafter bounced up strongly from support about 1,310 – 1,305. Last weekly candlestick comes with lighter volume than the week prior.
To see what is happening here we need to look inside last week at daily volume.
The long lower wick of last weekly candlestick is bullish.
On Balance Volume is giving a bullish signal last week as it found support at the yellow trend line and has moved up and away from that line. OBV may find some resistance at the purple line.
RSI is not extreme. There is still room for price to fall or rise. There is no divergence between price and RSI at the weekly chart level to indicate weakness.
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
StockCharts data is New York session only. With New York closed for a public holiday on Monday 5th of September, this classic technical analysis section has no update today.
Volume shows a steady increase all week, with Friday’s upwards day showing strongest volume. The rise in price for Friday was well supported by volume. This supports the main Elliott wave count; it is bullish.
Price has found support this week at the lower edge of the support zone about 1,305. The bounce up from there reinforces the strength of this support line.
On Balance Volume gave a bullish signal this week when it came down to touch the yellow support line and then moved up from there. The strength of this line is slightly reinforced. OBV is not up at the purple line which may offer resistance. This may initiate a reaction downwards, which is what both Elliott wave counts expect short term for Monday / Tuesday.
RSI is close to neutral. There is plenty of room for price to rise or fall. There is no divergence noted at the end of this week between price and RSI at the daily chart level to indicate any weakness.
ADX is still declining and the +DX and -DX lines are still whipsawing about each other. ADX indicates this market is not trending. This is a lagging indicator as it is based upon a 14 day average.
ATR for Friday has increased, but one day of increase is not enough to indicate a trend returning. Overall, ATR is still declining in agreement with ADX that this market is not yet trending. ATR is also a lagging indicator as it too is based upon a 14 day average.
Stochastics is returning from oversold. If the market is range bound, then the upwards swing should be expected to continue next week and only end when price finds resistance and Stochastics reaches overbought.
Bollinger Bands showed some small widening this week, but still are reasonably tightly contracted.
During the range bound period, which began back on 7th of July for Gold, it is still the two upwards days of 8th of July and 26th of August that have strongest volume. Volume is suggesting an upwards breakout is still more likely than downwards. This supports the Elliott wave count.
This analysis is published @ 06:19 p.m. EST.