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A short term move lower to 1,311 – 1,312 was expected before more upwards movement.

Price has moved higher.

Summary: Look out now for surprises to the upside. A small sideways correction may unfold remaining above 1,327.30. The target for the Elliott wave count for a third wave to end is at 1,585.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Thereafter, this wave count differs from the two alternates.

This main wave count will expect primary wave 3 to be longer than primary wave 1. Because this is very common, this is the main wave count. It expects the most common scenario is most likely. At 1,585 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (2) may now be complete ending just below the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) and lasting 40 days. Within intermediate wave (3), the upcoming correction for minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,302.93.

Draw a channel about intermediate wave (2) using Elliott’s technique for a correction (blue lines). Price may find some resistance on the way up about the upper edge.

With this wave count expecting a third wave at two large degrees to begin, look out for surprises to the upside at this stage.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted 27 days and intermediate wave (2) lasted 40 days. Intermediate wave (3) may be reasonably expected to last longer than intermediate wave (1) in both time and price. A Fibonacci 55 days would be a first expectation.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
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So far for BarChart data minute waves i, ii and now iii may be complete. Minute wave iii shows an increase in momentum and volume beyond that seen for minute wave i.

Minute wave iv may end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Minuette wave (iv) has its range from 1341.40 to 1,339.50. If this expectation is wrong, it may be too low.

Minute wave ii was a quick relatively shallow zigzag at 0.43 the depth of minute wave i. Minute wave iv may be more shallow, the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio would be a reasonable expectation about 1,343. Minute wave iv is most likely to be a sideways type of structure: a combination, flat or triangle. It may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,327.30.

When minute wave iv is complete, then a target may be calculated for minute wave v upwards to end. That cannot be done yet as it is not known where it begins.

When minute waves iv and v are complete, then an impulse for minor wave 1 would be complete. Minor wave 2 should follow and should last at least one day. At that stage, the invalidation point would move down to where it is on the daily chart at 1,302.93.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that primary wave 3 is over and shorter than primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 shows stronger volume than primary wave 1 (see technical analysis weekly chart).

If primary wave 3 is over, then the current consolidation for Gold would be primary wave 4.

Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.35 expanded flat correction. Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a deeper zigzag which would exhibit perfect alternation.

Within primary wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,302.93.

Primary wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3, so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. Primary wave 5 would have a limit at 1,477.77.

The hourly chart would be exactly the same except for the degree of labelling.



Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Last week made an important new low, slightly below the prior swing low of 18th of July. Price thereafter bounced up strongly from support about 1,310 – 1,305. Last weekly candlestick comes with lighter volume than the week prior.

To see what is happening here we need to look inside last week at daily volume.

The long lower wick of last weekly candlestick is bullish.

On Balance Volume is giving a bullish signal last week as it found support at the yellow trend line and has moved up and away from that line. OBV may find some resistance at the purple line.

RSI is not extreme. There is still room for price to fall or rise. There is no divergence between price and RSI at the weekly chart level to indicate weakness.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A strong volume spike for 6th of September may yet disappear later today from StockCharts data. For now the volume spike will be read as an increase in volume for a strong upwards day. If StockCharts data is updated, it may not be as strong though.

Price has moved higher on increasing volume for three days in a row. This supports the Elliott wave count.

On Balance Volume is giving a strong bullish signal today with a break above the purple line, which previously provided resistance. This strongly supports the Elliott wave count.

RSI is not extreme. There is room for price to rise. There is no divergence between price and RSI to indicate weakness.

ADX is increasing and the +DX line is above the -DX line. However, ADX is still below 15 and an upwards trend is not yet indicated.

ATR is now more clearly increasing. This indicates a likely trend is returning.

Stochastics is returning from oversold. There is room for price to rise. It should be expected that price will continue higher while Stochastics moves up towards overbought.

Bollinger Bands are showing some increase. Some volatility is returning to the market.

Overall, it looks like a trend is returning and it is upwards. But this is in the very early stages still.

This analysis is published @ 07:33 p.m. EST.