I still have only one bullish Elliott wave count for the USD Index.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
The US Dollar has been in a bull market since July 2011. So far there is no confirmation of a trend change. The bull market should be assumed to remain intact until proven otherwise.
Ratios within intermediate wave (1) are: minor wave 3 is 24.98 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 3 or 1.
Within minor wave 3, there are no Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v.
Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 8.46 short of 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).
Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 3 is 87.36 longer than 4.236 the length of minor wave 1. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor wave 5 and either of 3 or 1.
Minor wave 3, within intermediate wave (3), shows strongest upwards momentum. MACD supports the Elliott wave count.
Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 2 was a very deep 0.98 zigzag. Minor wave 4 is a shallow flat correction. There is perfect alternation between these two corrections which increases the probability of this wave count.
Intermediate wave (4) may be over as an expanded flat, or it may continue further sideways. Proportions between intermediate waves (2) and (4) would look better if it is over here.
If intermediate wave (4) continues, it may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 110.10.
A final support line is shown in cyan.
US Dollar does not have normal looking Elliott wave structures. For this reason I do not have a lot of confidence in any Elliott wave analysis of this market, so I would let classic technical analysis be a stronger guide.
Two first and second waves may be complete within intermediate wave (5). I have considered an ending diagonal but the rules regarding wave lengths cannot be met: the third wave would be longer than the first suggesting an expanding diagonal but the fourth wave would be shorter than the second suggesting a contracting diagonal.
This wave count expects to see an increase in upwards momentum. At 130.1 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).
Currently, this market is range bound. Both ADX and ATR are declining. RSI is neutral. There is room for price to rise or fall.
Volume is strongest on upwards days. On Balance Volume is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is slightly increasing, indicating the longer term trend may still be up. But the two shorter averages are both below it, indicating a correction during a longer term upwards trend may be continuing.
This analysis is published @ 2:34 a.m. EST.