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More downwards movement unfolded as expected.

Summary: Some weakness is now seen to this downwards movement. Volume today has declined further and the daily candlestick has a long lower wick. Some sideways / upwards movement may begin here for a few days. If this analysis is wrong, it may be in prematurely expecting an end to downwards movement; there is still a little room for price to fall further.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The larger structure of primary wave X may be either a double zigzag or a double combination. The second structure in this double for primary wave Y may be either a zigzag (for a double zigzag) or a flat or a triangle (for a double combination).

It is my judgement at this stage that it is more likely primary wave X will be a double zigzag due to the relatively shallow correction of intermediate wave (X). Although intermediate wave (X) is deep at 0.71 the length of intermediate wave (W), this is comfortably less than the 0.9 minimum requirement for a flat correction. Within combinations the X wave is most often very deep and looks like a B wave within a flat.

However, there is no minimum nor maximum requirement for X waves within combinations, so both a double zigzag and double combination must be understood to be possible. A double zigzag is more likely and that is how this analysis shall proceed.

Within the second structure, minor wave A should be a five wave structure. When it is done, then minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,336.14.

Now that minor wave A has closed below the channel about primary wave X, in the first instance minor wave B may find resistance there. If price closes back above this trend line, then Fibonacci ratios will be used for targets for minor wave B.

When minor wave B is complete, then a target for minor wave C downwards may be calculated at minor degree. The target may then change.

At this stage, at 1,204 intermediate wave (Y) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (W). If this target is wrong, it may not be low enough.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
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If this wave count is wrong today, it will be in expecting that minor wave A is complete. It is possible that while price remains within the channel that minor wave A may continue lower, so Gold may make a new low within the next 24 hours.

When the channel is breached by upwards movement, that shall provide some confidence in this wave count at the hourly chart level.

There is weakness to downwards movement at the last lows. MACD exhibits divergence.

Minor wave B may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures. It may include a new low if it is a running triangle, expanded flat or combination. It is likely to show up on the daily chart as at least one or more green candlesticks or doji.

If minor wave B finds resistance at the lower edge of the channel on the daily chart, then it may reach only to about the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio at 1,241. If it moves above this point, then the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios would be equally likely targets for it to end.

If minor wave A is correctly analysed as a five wave structure, then minor wave B may not move beyond its start above 1,330.82.



Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A strong downwards week comes with a very strong increase in volume. The fall in price is well supported.

The long upper wick on last weekly candlestick is very bearish.

On Balance Volume gives a bearish signal last week with a break below support at the purple trend line.

RSI is not extreme. There is plenty of room for price to fall. Also, there is no divergence between price and RSI this week to indicate weakness.

The larger picture last week is very bearish.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A smaller range downwards day comes with a reasonable decline in volume. The long lower wick is bullish. Bears were able to make a new low, but bulls rallied to push price reasonably higher at the end of the session. It looks like the bears are at least temporarily tired.

On Balance Volume is still bearish. There is no trend line at this stage for support.

RSI is oversold, just. It does not exhibit any divergence with price at this stage; it moved very slightly lower today while price made a new low also. There is a little room for more downwards movement. If this analysis is wrong today, it may be in expecting a low a day before the low arrives.

ADX is declining and does not indicate a trend. ATR today declined in agreement, but one day is not enough to say ATR has stopped increasing.

Bollinger Bands widened further today. Price has closed for two days below the lower range. When Gold trends strongly, it can close outside Bollinger Bands for several days running.

This analysis is published @ 06:55 p.m. EST.