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Sideways movement continues but downwards movement was expected.

The session did close with a red daily candlestick, but a new low was not made.

Summary: A short, quick wave down to a new low may unfold here. If price remains below 1,232.48 in the short term and moves lower, then look out for a surprisingly brief wave down. Thereafter, expect a big trend change and a new wave up that should move to new highs in coming weeks.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The larger structure of primary wave X may be either a double zigzag or a double combination. The second structure in this double for primary wave Y may be either a zigzag (for a double zigzag) or a flat or a triangle (for a double combination).

It is my judgement at this stage that it is more likely primary wave X will be a double zigzag due to the relatively shallow correction of intermediate wave (X). Although intermediate wave (X) is deep at 0.71 the length of intermediate wave (W), this is comfortably less than the 0.9 minimum requirement for a flat correction. Within combinations the X wave is most often very deep and looks like a B wave within a flat.

However, there is no minimum nor maximum requirement for X waves within combinations, so both a double zigzag and double combination must be understood to be possible. A double zigzag is more likely and that is how this analysis shall proceed.

Within the second structure, minor wave A should be a five wave structure. This now looks complete.

Minor wave B is so far finding resistance at the lower edge of the wide parallel channel about primary wave X. If price remains below this trend line, then the target will remain the same. At 1,204 intermediate wave (Y) will reach equality with intermediate wave (W).

Minor wave C may be a surprisingly short, sharp downwards wave. When intermediate wave (Y) is complete, then a major trend change is expected for Gold.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

With MACD hovering on the zero line, it looks like a triangle is still unfolding. Minor wave B may still be an incomplete triangle.

If my labelling of this triangle is wrong, it may be in expecting it is almost complete. Minute wave b may be continuing lower as a deeper more time consuming double zigzag.

The triangle will remain valid as long as price remains below 1,232.48. If the triangle remains valid, then the next wave down for minor wave C may be surprisingly brief and short.

While minor wave B is today labelled as a contracting triangle, it may still morph into a combination or larger flat correction. There are still more than 23 possible corrective structures it may complete as and it is impossible to eliminate any of these possibilities at this time.

The target at 1,204 still looks about right. A slight new low may occur before Gold is ready for a larger trend change.

The wide black channel is today copied over to the hourly chart. Price is finding resistance about the lower edge of this channel. After a new low, then a clear break above this trend line would add confidence in a trend change.



Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A strong downwards week comes with a very strong increase in volume. The fall in price is well supported.

The long upper wick on last weekly candlestick is very bearish.

On Balance Volume gives a bearish signal last week with a break below support at the purple trend line.

RSI is not extreme. There is plenty of room for price to fall. Also, there is no divergence between price and RSI this week to indicate weakness.

The larger picture last week is very bearish.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Another small range day comes with a further decline in volume. This overall upwards movement (higher high, higher low) for the session does not have support from volume. This movement looks corrective.

The short and mid term trend is still down. The short term Fibonacci 13 day moving average is pointing lower and is below the mid term Fibonacci 55 day average, which is also pointing lower. The longer term trend remains up with the 200 day moving average still pointing upwards.

A new support line is added today to On Balance Volume. A break below this line would be a very weak bearish signal; weak only because the line is tested only once and not long held.

ADX is declining, indicting the market is not trending. ATR agrees as it too is declining. Bollinger Bands continue to disagree as they are widening. With two of these three indicators pointing to a consolidating market, it should be expected that current movement is corrective.

This correction is bringing RSI back up from just oversold. It is also turning Stochastics upwards within oversold. At this stage, any short term divergence between the lows of price and Stochastics and / or RSI may signal a low in place.

There is still mid term divergence between price and RSI: the last two swing lows for price of the 7th of October to the 14th of November saw price make a new low but RSI make a higher low. This indicates weakness to the last wave down for price. This divergence is bullish. This supports the Elliott wave count, which expects only one slight new low before a trend change.

This analysis is published @ 06:06 p.m. EST.