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A short, quick downwards wave was expected for Thursday’s session. A red daily candlestick fits this expectation.

Summary: Look out for a trend change for Gold and the start of a new upwards wave to new highs, which may last about six months. The target for downwards movement to end is still at 1,205 – 1,199. If this is wrong, then it may be too low. It is possible Gold has turned already.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The larger structure of primary wave X may be either a double zigzag or a double combination. The second structure in this double for primary wave Y may be either a zigzag (for a double zigzag) or a flat or a triangle (for a double combination).

It is my judgement at this stage that it is more likely primary wave X will be a double zigzag due to the relatively shallow correction of intermediate wave (X). Although intermediate wave (X) is deep at 0.71 the length of intermediate wave (W), this is comfortably less than the 0.9 minimum requirement for a flat correction. Within combinations the X wave is most often very deep and looks like a B wave within a flat.

However, there is no minimum nor maximum requirement for X waves within combinations, so both a double zigzag and double combination must be understood to be possible. A double zigzag is more likely and that is how this analysis shall proceed.

Within the second structure, minor wave A should be a five wave structure. This now looks complete.

Minor wave B continues to find resistance at the lower edge of the wide parallel channel about primary wave X. If price remains below this trend line, then the target will remain the same. At 1,204 intermediate wave (Y) will reach equality with intermediate wave (W). At 1,199 minor wave C would reach 0.382 the length of minor wave A.

Minor wave C may be a surprisingly short, sharp downwards wave. When intermediate wave (Y) is complete, then a major trend change is expected for Gold.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

MACD hovered almost right on the zero line over the last few days. This strongly supports any wave count which sees a triangle unfolding here.

Gold often exhibits surprisingly short waves out of its triangles, for both fifth waves after fourth wave triangles and C waves after B wave triangles. If this analysis is wrong today, it may be in expecting a new low that does not occur or the target may be too low. Look out for a quick end to minor wave C downwards.

Within minor wave C, minute wave i has its low at 1,224.56. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,224.56. In the short term, a new high above 1,224.56 would indicate that upwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within minor wave C, so at that stage minor wave C must be over.

When minor wave C is over, then a target for primary wave Y upwards may be calculated. The initial expectation will be for it to be about $329 in length. It may last about six months.



Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A strong downwards week comes with a very strong increase in volume. The fall in price is well supported.

The long upper wick on last weekly candlestick is very bearish.

On Balance Volume gives a bearish signal last week with a break below support at the purple trend line.

RSI is not extreme. There is plenty of room for price to fall. Also, there is no divergence between price and RSI this week to indicate weakness.

The larger picture last week is very bearish.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

StockCharts data shows a slight new low today below the prior low of the 14th of November.

There was some support for downwards movement from volume with a small increase. Volume is still light relative to prior strong downwards days.

On Balance Volume also moved lower, so there is no divergence with price. The lower support line is redrawn. This has no technical significance and will only become important if OBV turns up from here tomorrow.

There is no divergence between RSI and price at the two lows for today and the 14th of November. RSI is slightly oversold. There is still a little room for price to fall further though.

ADX declined further today indicating the market is not trending. ATR also declined further. Bollinger Bands continue to widen. There is still disagreement with these three indicators. It is assumed that the weight of evidence points to a consolidating market.

There is some divergence today with price and Stochastics, and Stochastics is oversold. This indicates weakness for bears. If the low is not here already, then it may be close.

This analysis is published @ 06:30 p.m. EST.