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Sideways movement was expected. In the short term, some downwards movement within a consolidation was expected for the session, and this is what has happened.

Summary: At this stage, it looks more likely that Gold is within a sideways consolidation that may last a total of five, eight or thirteen days and may end about 1,211.60 to 1,232.48.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historical analysis video is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
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The main and second alternate wave counts today are swapped over. This wave count now has a higher probability.

This wave count is labelled alternate in the last historical analysis, and it is the second alternate at the daily chart level.

What if a new bear market is underway for cycle wave c? The most likely structure would be an impulse.

Price may be now moving into a small consolidation for minor wave 4.

The middle of the third wave may be complete for primary wave 1.

This wave count still suffers from a problem of disproportion between minute wave ii and the two prior second wave corrections one and two degrees higher. Minute wave ii should be quicker than minor wave 2 and especially intermediate wave (2). The fact that it is not must reduce the probability of this wave count.

If minor wave 3 is over, then it has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 2.52 short of 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Minute wave v fits as a five wave impulse on the hourly chart even though it does not look quite right on the daily chart.

The blue channel here is a best fit. Draw the first trend line from the ends of minor waves 1 to 3, then push a parallel copy up to contain most of this movement except the spike for minute wave ii. Minor wave 4 may find resistance at the upper edge of the channel if it gets that high.

Minor wave 2 was a deep 0.77 zigzag lasting four days. Minor wave 4 may be a more shallow flat, combination or triangle. These tend to be longer lasting structures than zigzags, so at this early stage an expectation of a Fibonacci five, eight or thirteen sessions would be reasonable. So far it has lasted just three.

Minor wave 4 may end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Minute wave iv has its range from 1,211.60 to 1,232.48. If this expectation is wrong, it may be too high; minor wave 4 may be more shallow.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 1,305.32.

The target for intermediate wave (3) is at 1,095 where it would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).


Gold Analysis
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The other alternate idea of a leading expanding diagonal published up to yesterday will be discarded based upon a very low probability.

An analysis back to 1997 of the daily chart of first waves and A waves at minor degree* and above reveals 23 examples, and all but one were impulses. The sole leading diagonal found was contracting for a first wave up, so it does appear that leading expanding diagonals are not very common.

* One wave at minute degree is included as it was the start of a long third wave.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
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Minor wave 4 is least likely to unfold as a zigzag, so it is unlikely at this stage to be over at the high labelled minute wave a.

If minor wave 4 unfolds as the most likely flat, combination or triangle, then within it minute wave a is most likely to be a zigzag. This may now be complete.

When A waves subdivide as threes, there is no invalidation point for the following B wave because they may make new price extremes beyond the start of the A wave as in expanded flats and running triangles. The most common range for minute wave b would be from 1 to 1.38 the length of minute wave a at 1,158.03 to 1,149.77.

If minor wave 4 unfolds as a flat correction, then within it the minimum requirement for minute wave b is 0.9 the length of minute wave at at 1,155.62.

If minor wave 4 unfolds as a triangle, then there is no minimum nor maximum length for minute wave b within it. It must only subdivide as a three.

If minor wave 4 unfolds as a combination, then the first structure within the combination may be a complete zigzag labelled minute wave w. The double combination now should be joined by a three in the opposite direction labelled minute wave x. There is no minimum nor maximum for X waves within combinations. X waves must only subdivide as corrective structures, which may subdivide as any corrective structure including multiples.

Overall, this wave count expects to see for several more days choppy overlapping movement that may include a new low (but it does not have to make a new low). It is impossible to tell at this stage which Elliott wave structure minor wave 4 will complete as, only to say it is least likely to be a zigzag. There are still over 20 possible structures it may be, so it must be understood that as it continues this analysis at the hourly chart level must be flexible and that the labelling of minor wave 4 will change in coming days.

At this stage, it looks like minute wave b may be unfolding lower as a double zigzag. The first zigzag is complete labelled minuette wave (w). The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction labelled minuette wave (x). Minuette wave (x) looks like it may be unfolding as a regular contracting triangle. If this piece of analysis is correct, then the breakout from the triangle should be downwards.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
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This was the main wave count in last historical analysis here.

The larger structure of primary wave X (or primary wave 2) may be either a double zigzag or a double combination. The second structure in this double for primary wave Y may be either a zigzag (for a double zigzag) or a flat or a triangle (for a double combination).

If the next wave up is primary wave 3, then it may only subdivide as an impulse.

It is my judgement at this stage that it is more likely primary wave X will be a double zigzag due to the relatively shallow correction of intermediate wave (X). Although intermediate wave (X) is deep at 0.71 the length of intermediate wave (W), this is comfortably less than the 0.9 minimum requirement for a flat correction. Within combinations the X wave is most often very deep and looks like a B wave within a flat.

However, there is no minimum nor maximum requirement for X waves within combinations, so both a double zigzag and double combination must be understood to be possible. A double zigzag is more likely and that is how this analysis shall proceed.

Within the second structure, minor wave A should be a five wave structure.

Minor wave B found resistance at the lower edge of the wide parallel channel about primary wave X. Along the way up, price may find resistance at the lower edge of this channel. Resistance at this trend line needs to be overcome for any bullish wave count from here to have a reasonable level of confidence.

Minor wave C may now again be complete at the hourly chart level.

If the next wave up is another zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would reach equality in length with primary wave W at 1,487.

If the next wave up is an impulse for primary wave 3, then it would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1 at 1,690.

Price should be moving up with some increase in momentum for this wave count, with support from volume. The fact that it is not has reduced the probability of this wave count today and is the reason for the swap over to alternate.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
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The last two lows exhibit divergence between price and MACD. Downwards movement is lacking momentum.

A new high above 1,305.32 would add confidence that there has been a trend change for Gold.

It was incorrectly noted yesterday that minute wave ii was a combination. Minute wave ii is a double zigzag and not a combination. It is unusual in that the second structure in the double does not deepen the correction and ends only very slightly below the first.

If minute wave iii begins here, then at 1,195 it would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. If minute wave ii moves lower, then this target must also move correspondingly lower.

Within minute wave iii, the correction for minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,166.29.

This wave count should see an increase in momentum as a third wave at two degrees unfolds upwards.



Gold Weekly 2016
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The spinning top candlestick for last week comes with slightly lighter volume. The fall in price does not have as much support from volume. Bears are tiring.

The small real body of last week’s candlestick makes it a spinning top. This puts the trend from down to neutral at this stage. The bears are losing momentum.

There is no support line here for On Balance Volume at the weekly chart level.

RSI is not extreme at the weekly chart level and exhibits no divergence with price to indicate weakness here. There is still room for price to fall.


Gold Daily 2016
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A small inside day closes red with very slightly lighter volume than the prior session. The fall in price does not have support from volume. Volume for the last three days is light.

On Balance Volume remains constrained. A breakout by OBV may indicate the next direction for price.

RSI has returned from oversold. Stochastics is just returning from oversold. Some more sideways movement may be required to bring these two indicators back up further to neutral to allow room for price to fall again.

ADX now indicates the market is not trending; it is consolidating. No trend change has been indicated, the -DX line remains above the +DX line.

ATR is declining, indicating a consolidating market. Bollinger Bands agree as they are contracting.

The long term 200 day moving average is rolling over indicating a larger trend change may have occurred. The mid term average is pointing lower as is the short term average. The trend is still down. Price is below all three. Initial resistance may be found at the short term moving average and thereafter at the mid term. There is price resistance about 1,250.


GDX Daily 2016
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Price is moving essentially sideways and is range bound for GDX. Resistance is about 22.25 and support is about 20.15. During this range bound period, it is the downwards day of the 23rd of November that has strongest volume (ignoring the first day of the 14th of November) suggesting a downwards breakout may be more likely than upwards. This technique often works for Gold (not always). It remains to be seen how reliable it is for GDX.

ADX today has slightly increased indicating a possible downwards trend still. ATR is clearly declining. Bollinger Bands are clearly contracting. Price is consolidating. This market is not currently trending. A bear flag pattern may be forming, delineated by blue trend lines. This is a continuation pattern. It is supported by declining volume.

Using the measure rule, a target of about 14.50 would be expected. First, to have confidence in this target, a downwards breakout needs to be seen below the lower blue trend line. If this is accompanied by a spike in volume, it would be given more weight. But note that for a downwards breakout stronger volume is not always necessary as the market may fall of its own weight.

On Balance Volume remains constrained. A breakout by OBV may indicate the next direction for price.

Overall, this GDX analysis is in line with the new main Elliott wave count for Gold spot price.

This analysis is published @ 07:48 p.m. EST.