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Price moved strongly higher exactly as the Elliott wave count expected for a third wave up. Targets remain the same.

Summary: Reasonable confidence is had today in the Elliott wave count. The structure of this upwards wave is incomplete and for now the invalidation point is moved up to 1,205.18. Long positions should now move stops to at least breakeven to eliminate risk, and to just below the invalidation point if 1,205.18 is above your entry point.

The target for the very short term is at 1,223 where a small shallow fourth wave may unfold. It is left up to individual members to decide if they wish to hold long positions until the next high after that for minute v is reached (not yet calculated), or if they would rather exit at the end of minute wave iii. Fifth waves in commodities are often extended, so the next wave up may also offer a good trading opportunity.

Traders with a longer horizon and a low entry point may choose to hold on until 1,452 or 1,655.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) so far looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. The structure may now be complete (first hourly chart below) or it may require a final low (second hourly chart below).

If intermediate wave (2) is over at Friday’s low, then it would have lasted 22 sessions; this may be considered close enough to a Fibonacci 21 to exhibit a Fibonacci duration.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

If this wave count is correct, then at its end minor wave C will provide a very good opportunity to join the longer term upwards trend.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 1 is unfolding as an impulse. Within minor wave 1, the middle for minute wave iii still looks incomplete.

Within minute wave iii, there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). This makes it more likely that minuette wave (v) will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minuette waves (i) or (iii). Equality in length with minuette wave (i) would see it 7.69 in length. If minuette wave (v) begins here, then the target would be at 1,225.

If the target at 1,223 is wrong, then it may be a little too low. Look also for a possible target at 1,225.

When price makes a new high above the end of minuette wave (iii) at 1,221.66, then the invalidation point must move up to the high labelled minute wave i at 1,211.06. As soon as a new high is seen, then it may be minuette wave (v) of minute wave iii.

When minute wave iii looks like a possibly completed five wave impulse, then the invalidation point moves up to the end of minute wave i at 1,211.06. The following correction for minute wave iv may not move back down into minute wave i price territory.

Minute wave ii was a very deep zigzag. Given the guideline of alternation, the next correction for minute wave iv may be expected to be a very shallow sideways combination, flat or triangle.

When minute wave iii looks like it may be a complete five wave impulse, then draw a Fibonacci retracement along its length. Use the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci ratios as targets for minute wave iv. If one of these Fibonacci ratios also happens to be within the price territory of minuette wave (iv), the fourth wave of one lesser degree, then that Fibonacci ratio should be favoured as a target.

Markets do not move in a straight line when they trend; there are always corrections along the way at all time frames. Corrections within trends present opportunities to join the trend. In this case, the trend for Gold does look like it is up.

When minor wave 1 is a complete five wave impulse, then the invalidation point will move down to its start at 1,195.22. Minor wave 2 would be expected to last about three days, but at this stage of the wave count it may not be too deep..



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Last week completes a red candlestick that closed with lighter volume than the week prior. This offers small support for the Elliott wave count that sees downwards movement over here or very soon. However, price can continue to fall for a few more weeks of its own weight.

On Balance Volume has some distance to go to find support or resistance. It is not very useful at this time on the weekly time frame.

ADX indicates no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The candlestick on StockCharts data today for Gold is highly suspicious. My broker data shows a close for the session at 1,219.58 and BarChart data shows a close for the session at 1,218.76. StockCharts data is almost $20 below this showing a close at 1,200.70.

I do not trust this data.

Unfortunately, BarChart have complete price and volume data for the session, but their technical tools do not update until the end of the next session. I am unable today to do classic technical analysis on Gold for you with this inadequate data.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A very strong upwards day with very strong volume is very bullish. Price may find some resistance here about the Fibonacci 55 day moving average.

This looks like a third wave up for GDX.

ADX is a lagging indicator. First, it needs to show a trend change from down to up and then it needs to indicate a new trend. As it is based on a 14 day average and the possible new upwards trend may only be in its fourth day, ADX would not yet be able to indicate a trend change.

ATR does indicate a possible change as it showed a strong increase today.

Upwards movement may halt when On Balance Volume reaches resistance, in one more day.

The only concern today with GDX is contracting Bollinger Bands. On a move of this magnitude it would be normal for volatility to expand and not contract.

This analysis is published @ 07:47 p.m. EST.