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More upwards movement was expected from last analysis. This is what has happened.

Summary: A small fourth wave correction may now unfold sideways over one to three days and should remain above 1,211.06. When the correction is complete, then a target for the fifth wave up may be calculated; it may be about 35.48 in length.

If price moves below 1,211.06, then at that stage all long positions should be exited and expect more downwards movement to about 1,175.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) so far looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

Minor wave C may now be a complete five wave structure with a Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) may have ended very close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) or (A).

If intermediate wave (2) is over at Friday’s low, then it would have lasted 22 sessions; this may be considered close enough to a Fibonacci 21 to exhibit a Fibonacci duration.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

If this wave count is correct, then at its end minor wave C will provide a very good opportunity to join the longer term upwards trend.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 1 would be unfolding as an impulse. Within minor wave 1, the middle for minute wave iii now looks complete but does not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, so it is more likely that minute wave v will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

In this case, because minute wave i is relatively short, minute wave v may be a longer extension; this is common for Gold. Minute wave v may be about equal in length with minute wave iii if it is 35.48. It may also be equal in length with minute wave i at 15.84. When minute wave iv is complete, then a target can be calculated for minute wave v.

Minute wave iv would exhibit alternation in depth and structure to minute wave ii if it is shallow and either a flat, combination or triangle. Within these possibilities, an expanded flat or running triangle or combination may include a new high above the start of minute wave iv at 1,232.97. At this stage, a new high may be part of minute wave iv and not necessarily minute wave v.

Minute wave ii lasted two sessions and shows on the daily chart as two red daily candlesticks. If minute wave iv also shows on the daily chart as at least one daily candlestick, then it would give the wave count the right look at the daily chart level.

At this stage, the most likely point for minute wave iv to end may be the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii at 1,224.60 as this price point is within the fourth wave of one lesser degree. This target expects sideways movement and not any substantial lower movement for another one to few days.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count is new in response to queries from members.

Fibonacci ratios and channels are noted on both daily charts today, so that members may compare the main and alternate wave counts. This alternate wave count has slightly better Fibonacci ratios and upwards movement fits within the Elliott channel slightly better. This gives this wave count a reasonable probability. Due mostly to volume, this wave count is judged today to have a lower probability than the main wave count.

At this stage, this wave count would be considered confirmed if price makes a new low below 1,211.10. At that stage, the target for intermediate wave (2) or (B) to end would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) or (A) at 1,175.

At the hourly chart level, the structure of minor wave B would be exactly the same as the main wave count because a-b-c for a zigzag subdivides 5-3-5 exactly the same as 1-2-3 for an impulse.

How low the next correction goes should tell us which wave count is correct.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Last week completes a red candlestick that closed with lighter volume than the week prior. This offers small support for the Elliott wave count that sees downwards movement over here or very soon. However, price can continue to fall for a few more weeks of its own weight.

On Balance Volume has some distance to go to find support or resistance. It is not very useful at this time on the weekly time frame.

ADX indicates no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This data from StockCharts is now better than it looked yesterday, but it is still substantially different from BarChart data. The close for the 15th of March on StockCharts data is at 1,213.60. The close for the 15th of March for BarChart data is at 1,219.44.

The close for today’s session, the 16th of March, is almost the same between StockCharts and BarChart, so this looks reliable.

If data for the 15th of March is correct from StockCharts (and I do not think it is), then the long upper wicks on the two green daily candlesticks are bearish.

Strong volume for yesterday’s session is very bullish. A slight decline for today’s session is bearish. It looks like bulls may be temporarily tired and a small consolidation may unfold here. This supports the main Elliott wove count.

Price is not yet at the upper edge of Bollinger Bands. RSI is neutral and Stochastics is only just moving out from oversold. There is plenty of room for price to continue higher.

ADX is now only just moving below both directional lines. A cross of the +DX line above the -DX line is a bullish trend change. ATR is increasing now after a long period of decline, which is also bullish. These two indicators support the main Elliott wave count.

Long term bullish divergence between price and On Balance Volume also supports the main Elliott wave count.

B waves should exhibit weakness; there should be something off about them. This upwards movement of the last two days does not fit this description.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

After yesterday’s strong upwards day with very strong volume, today’s upwards day closes red and has a balance of volume which is downwards. Downwards movement during today’s session does not have support from volume. It looks like the trend is most likely upwards now for GDX and today was a small pullback within that trend.

ADX is a lagging indicator. If this is a new upwards trend, it has only been underway now for five days and ADX is based upon a 14 day average. It is too early for ADX to indicate a trend. First, the directional lines must cross and then the ADX line must show an increase for an upwards trend to be indicated. At this stage, ADX only indicates a consolidation within a larger downwards trend.

This analysis is published @ 07:07 p.m. EST.