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Sideways movement was expected for Friday. An inside day perfectly fits expectations.

Summary: A small fourth wave correction may now continue sideways over another one to few days and should remain above 1,211.06. When the correction is complete, then a target for the fifth wave up may be calculated; it may be about 35.48 in length.

If price moves below 1,211.06, then at that stage all long positions should be exited and expect more downwards movement to about 1,175.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) so far looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

Minor wave C may now be a complete five wave structure with a Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) may have ended very close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) or (A).

If intermediate wave (2) is over, then it would have lasted 22 sessions; this may be considered close enough to a Fibonacci 21 to exhibit a Fibonacci duration.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

If this wave count is correct, then at its end minor wave C will provide a very good opportunity to join the longer term upwards trend.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), the first wave up for minor wave 1 may be close to completion. When it is complete, then minor wave 2 may unfold lower. Minor wave 2 may not be a very deep correction because the strong upwards pull of a big third wave may force it to be more shallow than otherwise. However, if it is relatively deep, it may find support at the lower edge of the base channel and may offer another opportunity to join the upwards trend.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 1 would be unfolding as an impulse. Within minor wave 1, the middle for minute wave iii now looks complete but does not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, so it is more likely that minute wave v will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

In this case, because minute wave i is relatively short, minute wave v may be a longer extension; this is common for Gold. Minute wave v may be about equal in length with minute wave iii if it is 35.48. It may also be equal in length with minute wave i at 15.84. When minute wave iv is complete, then a target can be calculated for minute wave v.

Minute wave iv would exhibit alternation in depth and structure to minute wave ii if it is shallow and either a flat, combination or triangle. Within these possibilities, an expanded flat or running triangle or combination may include a new high above the start of minute wave iv at 1,232.97. At this stage, a new high may be part of minute wave iv and not necessarily minute wave v.

Minute wave iv is labelled as a possible triangle today but may morph into a different type of correction over the next one to few days, so as it unfolds the labelling within it will probably change. The focus is on whether or not it may be complete and not trying to predict exactly how it will unfold because there is too much variation possible within corrections.

With MACD flattening off and price moving sideways within a small range, it does look like a triangle may be unfolding at this stage. If the triangle remains valid, and if it completes, then the expectation for the following fifth wave up of minute wave v will be substantially changed. Gold often exhibits surprisingly short and brief fifth waves out of its fourth wave triangles. The expectation would be then for minute wave v to move only slightly above the end of minute wave iii at 1,232.97 to avoid a truncation, and to be over possibly within one session.

My focus on Monday and Tuesday for you will be to identify whether a triangle may be completing for minute wave iv.

Minute wave ii lasted two sessions and shows on the daily chart as two red daily candlesticks. If minute wave iv also shows on the daily chart as at least one daily candlestick, then it would give the wave count the right look at the daily chart level.

At this stage, the most likely point for minute wave iv to end may be the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii at 1,224.60 as this price point is within the fourth wave of one lesser degree. This target expects sideways movement and not any substantial lower movement for another one to few days.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count is new in response to queries from members.

Fibonacci ratios and channels are noted on both daily charts, so that members may compare the main and alternate wave counts. This alternate wave count has slightly better Fibonacci ratios. This gives this wave count a reasonable probability. Due mostly to volume, this wave count is judged today to have a lower probability than the main wave count.

At this stage, this wave count would be considered confirmed if price makes a new low below 1,211.10. At that stage, the target for intermediate wave (2) or (B) to end would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) or (A) at 1,175.

At the hourly chart level, the structure of minor wave B would be exactly the same as the main wave count because a-b-c for a zigzag subdivides 5-3-5 exactly the same as 1-2-3 for an impulse.

How low the current small correction goes should tell us which wave count is correct.



Gold Weekly 2017
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This week completes an inside week with slightly lighter volume than last week. While last week saw falling price on declining volume, which pointed to an end to downwards movement, this week looks more like a correction within a downwards trend than a new upwards trend.

On Balance Volume has some distance to go before it would reach either resistance or support, so it is not giving any signal at this stage.


Gold Daily 2016
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This data from StockCharts is still substantially different from BarChart data. The close for the 15th of March on StockCharts data is at 1,213.60. The close for the 15th of March for BarChart data is at 1,219.44.

The close for the 16th of March is almost the same between StockCharts and BarChart, so this looks reliable.

If data for the 15th of March is correct from StockCharts (and I do not think it is), then the long upper wicks on the two green daily candlesticks are bearish.

Strong volume for the first two days of upwards movement offered some support to the rise in price. This supports the main wave count over the alternate. The alternate expects this was a B wave; B waves should exhibit weakness and not strength.

A large decline in volume for the small inside day of Friday also supports the main Elliott wave count over the alternate. This looks like a small consolidation and not the start of a C wave downwards.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Lighter volume for downwards movement Thursday and Friday, with a decline for Friday, supports the idea that this is a pullback within a new upwards trend.

The only concern with this idea still is contracting Bollinger Bands as price moved higher.

Overall, it still looks more likely that GDX is within a new upwards trend.

This analysis is published @ 08:03 p.m. EST on 18th March, 2017.