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A fourth wave correction ended right at the lower edge of the Elliott channel and from there price bounced up to make new highs for a fifth wave.

Summary: Assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise. Assume price will keep going up while price remains within the pink channel and above 1,227.04. The target is at 1,253 or 1,263. A breach of the channel would indicate a second wave correction has begun. If there is a breach and a correction is underway, then it should find support at the lower edge of the black base channel on the daily chart if it gets that low.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) so far looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), the first wave up for minor wave 1 may be close to completion. When it is complete, then minor wave 2 may unfold lower. Minor wave 2 may not be a very deep correction because the strong upwards pull of a big third wave may force it to be more shallow than otherwise. However, if it is relatively deep, it may find support at the lower edge of the base channel and may offer another opportunity to join the upwards trend.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,195.22.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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The whole of minor wave 1 is shown today on this chart.

Minor wave 1 has a good five wave look to it. Using MACD as a guide to the Elliott wave count, minute wave iii exhibits strongest momentum and minute wave v exhibits some divergence.

Minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i. This means it is more likely that minute wave v will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

It is possible that minute wave v is over at today’s high. If yes, it would be 1.84 short of 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

If price keeps rising, then the first target is at 1,253. If price keeps rising beyond first target, then the next target would be about 1,263 where minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave iii.

Use the pink channel as a guide to when minor wave 1 has ended. If price breaks below the lower edge with a full hourly candlestick below and not touching the lower edge, that shall provide some trend channel indication that minor wave 1 would be very likely over and minor wave 2 would be very likely underway.

When that happens, draw a Fibonacci retracement along the length of minor wave 1. The 0.382 Fibonacci ratio would be a first target for minor wave 2 (may not be a very deep correction). If price falls through that first point, then the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio would be the next target. If minor wave 2 is relatively deep, it should find very strong support at the lower edge of the black base channel. A breach of that trend line is not expected for this main wave count.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count is in response to queries from members.

Fibonacci ratios are noted on both daily charts, so that members may compare the main and alternate wave counts. This alternate wave count has slightly better Fibonacci ratios. This gives this wave count a reasonable probability. Due mostly to volume, this wave count is judged to have a lower probability than the main wave count.

At this stage, this wave count would be considered confirmed if price makes a new low below 1,195.22. At that stage, the target for intermediate wave (2) or (B) to end would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) or (A) at 1,175.

At the hourly chart level, this alternate wave count would now have to see the structure differently from the main wave count. Minor wave B must be a zigzag; it cannot be seen as an impulse. This is problematic because the upwards movement looks very strongly like a five on the hourly chart. This wave count would be forced now. The probability of it has further reduced today.



Gold Weekly 2017
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Last week completes an inside week with slightly lighter volume than the previous week. While the previous week saw falling price on declining volume, which pointed to an end to downwards movement, last week looks more like a correction within a downwards trend than a new upwards trend.

On Balance Volume has some distance to go before it would reach either resistance or support, so it is not giving any signal at this stage.


Gold Daily 2016
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Strong volume today supports the rise in price. The long lower wick of this daily candlestick is bullish. Assume the trend is up, until proven otherwise by a breach of the channel on the hourly Elliott wave count.

There is room for price to continue higher. RSI and Stochastics are not yet extreme.

ADX has finally caught up with price. An upwards trend is indicated and there is plenty of room for it to run.



GDX Daily 2016
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On Balance Volume may halt the rise in price here.

GDX now has a very clear five up on the daily chart. The next structure should be a three down, for a pullback.

But RSI and Stochastics are not yet overbought, so there is room for upwards movement to continue before a pullback arrives for GDX.

This analysis is published @ 08:01 p.m. EST.