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A slight new high was not expected but was allowed for. Thereafter, price has turned downwards to breach the channel on the hourly chart.

Summary: Another pullback looks most likely to have begun today. The target is about 1,217; but if this is wrong, it may be too low. The target may be met in 3, 5 or 8 sessions. At its end, this pullback may offer an excellent opportunity to join the upwards trend.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), the first wave up for minor wave 1 may be complete today. Minor wave 2 may unfold lower. Minor wave 2 may not be a very deep correction because the strong upwards pull of a big third wave may force it to be more shallow than otherwise. However, if it is relatively deep, it may find support at the lower edge of the base channel and may offer another opportunity to join the upwards trend.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,195.22.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Price may be beginning to break below the lower edge of the Elliott channel. However, so far there is not a full hourly candlestick below and not touching the channel. It looks like price may be moving back into the channel, so this breach needs to be clearer for confidence in a trend change.

Minor wave 1 may have ended with a very slight new high. This improves the Fibonacci ratio within it, between minute waves v and i.

If it is over now, then minor wave 1 would have lasted 9 days. Considering the stage within the wave count with a large third wave up at two big degrees imminent, minor wave 2 may be more brief and shallow than second waves normally are. An expectation of a Fibonacci 3, 5 or 8 days looks reasonable.

Minor wave 2 may reach the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 about 1,217, or it may only end close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio about 1,231. If it reaches the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio, then price would remain well within the black base channel on the daily chart.

If minor wave 2 is deeper than expected, look for very strong support at the black base channel on the daily chart. This wave count does not expect that trend line to be breached at this stage.

While minor wave 2 may be any corrective structure except a triangle, it is most likely to be a zigzag. If it is an expanded flat or combination, it may include a new high above its start at 1,252.75. A new high short term does not necessarily mean that minor wave 2 is over; at this stage, it would most likely be part of minor wave 2.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count is in response to queries from members.

Fibonacci ratios are noted on both daily charts, so that members may compare the main and alternate wave counts. This alternate wave count has slightly better Fibonacci ratios. This gives this wave count a reasonable probability. Due mostly to volume, this wave count is judged to have a lower probability than the main wave count.

At this stage, this wave count would be considered confirmed if price makes a new low below 1,195.22. At that stage, the target for intermediate wave (2) or (B) to end would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) or (A) at 1,175.

At the hourly chart level, this alternate wave count would now have to see the structure differently from the main wave count. Minor wave B must be a zigzag; it cannot be seen as an impulse. This is problematic because the upwards movement looks very strongly like a five on the hourly chart. This wave count would be forced now. The probability of it has further reduced.



Gold Weekly 2017
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Last week completes an inside week with slightly lighter volume than the previous week. While the previous week saw falling price on declining volume, which pointed to an end to downwards movement, last week looks more like a correction within a downwards trend than a new upwards trend.

On Balance Volume has some distance to go before it would reach either resistance or support, so it is not giving any signal at this stage.


Gold Daily 2016
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Price is finding resistance about 1,254, an area of prior strong support and resistance.

Today completes a red daily candlestick with a small real body. This is a spinning top candlestick and represents indecision, a balance between bulls and bears. The trend expectation is changed from up to neutral. The balance of volume was downwards and it shows a very slight increase beyond the prior upwards day, which is slightly bearish.

On Balance Volume is too far from resistance to give any signals today.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A downwards day from GDX has support from volume.

The long lower wick of today’s candlestick is bullish.

On Balance Volume has proven to be useful showing where price was likely to turn as it found resistance.

Overall, it looks reasonable to expect a deeper pullback for at least a few days here for GDX.

This analysis is published @ 07:47 p.m. EST.