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Downwards movement for a pullback was expected for Friday’s session. A lower low and a lower high is the definition of downwards movement, and this is what was seen for Friday.

Summary: Another pullback looks most likely to be underway. The target is now about 1,233 – 1,231. The target may be met in another 2, 4 or 7 sessions. At its end, this pullback may offer an excellent opportunity to join the upwards trend.

This analysis sees Gold as currently within a small counter trend movement at minor degree. If this is correct, then less experienced members are best advised to patiently wait for the correction to end before entering the market again; corrections do not present good trading opportunities. Only very experienced members may attempt to use a range bound approach to trade corrections.

During corrections the Elliott wave count for the correction often changes, because there are too many structural possibilities for me to give accuracy of all the small movements within a correction. The focus is on identifying when it may be over.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), the first wave up for minor wave 1 may be complete. Minor wave 2 may unfold lower. Minor wave 2 may not be a very deep correction because the strong upwards pull of a big third wave may force it to be more shallow than otherwise. However, if it is relatively deep, it may find support at the lower edge of the base channel and may offer another opportunity to join the upwards trend.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,195.22.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 2 does look most likely to be now underway. It may take the form of any corrective structure except a triangle. At this stage, it is impossible to tell with certainty which of a large number of structures it may be. The labelling within it will probably change as it continues to unfold. Flexibility during corrections is important. The focus is on seeing when and where it may be complete and not on the small movements within it.

So far the first wave down labelled minute wave a fits best as a zigzag. This indicates minor wave 2 may most likely be unfolding as a flat, double zigzag or combination. A double zigzag looks to be the least likely of these options because the upwards movement labelled minute wave b is a 0.9 length of the prior downwards movement labelled minute wave a. Double zigzags normally have relatively brief and shallow X waves and this one looks too deep.

The most likely structure for minor wave 2 may be a regular flat correction. The most common Fibonacci ratio for minute wave c may be equality in length with minute wave a. This would reach the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio at 1,239. However, although this is possible, it would be a remarkably shallow second wave correction, even one occurring just before a big third wave.

Do keep this possibility in mind though for Monday. It is possible that minor wave 2 may be over in just one or two more sessions and may only reach down to 1,239.

A more likely target for minor wave 2 does look to be a more normal 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 about 1,231. This is close to where minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a at 1,233, so this gives a $2 target zone.

Although minute wave b is labelled as a complete zigzag, it is also possible that it may yet move higher as a double zigzag on Monday and Tuesday. At this stage, that possibility cannot be ruled out. So there is no upper invalidation point still for minute wave b because it may make a new high above the start of minute wave a at 1,252.75, as in an expanded flat, which is the most common type of flat correction.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count is in response to queries from members.

Fibonacci ratios are noted on both daily charts, so that members may compare the main and alternate wave counts. This alternate wave count has slightly better Fibonacci ratios. This gives this wave count a reasonable probability. Due mostly to volume, this wave count is judged to have a lower probability than the main wave count.

At this stage, this wave count would be considered confirmed if price makes a new low below 1,195.22. At that stage, the target for intermediate wave (2) or (B) to end would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) or (A) at 1,175.

At the hourly chart level, this alternate wave count would now have to see the structure differently from the main wave count. Minor wave B must be a zigzag; it cannot be seen as an impulse. This is problematic because the upwards movement looks very strongly like a five on the hourly chart. This wave count would be forced now. The probability of it has further reduced.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This week saw price move higher with a small increase in volume. Overall, the rise in price has some support from volume and this supports the main Elliott wave count, which saw it as the end of a first wave up.

On Balance Volume is not close to resistance, so it gives no signal this week.

ADX has now been pulled right down from extreme. There is now room again for a longer term trend to develop.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price is finding resistance about 1,254, an area of prior strong support and resistance.

Friday was technically a downwards day with a lower low and a lower high, but the candlestick closed green and the balance of volume was upwards during the session. Volume for the session was much lighter than the prior day, so the rise in price during the session did not have support from volume. This supports the main Elliott wave count, which sees upwards movement during Friday’s session as a B wave; B waves should show weakness like this.

On Balance Volume is not close to resistance. It gives no signal here.

A few days of downwards movement here may bring Stochastics back down from oversold *edit: overbought. However, this oscillator may remain extreme for long periods of time when Gold trends.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A small inside day for Friday is neutral, neither bullish nor bearish. The decline in volume looks like Friday was a small consolidation within a small trend.

GDX is now range bound with resistance about 24 and support about 22.50. Price is moving sideways while volume overall declines. Wait for a classic breakout on high volume for an indication of the next trend direction.

This analysis is published @ 08:00 p.m. EST on 25th March, 2017.