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Downwards movement unfolded for Tuesday’s session as expected. On Balance Volume and the 200 day moving average were enough to turn price down. A new low below 1,252.75 added a little confidence to the expectation.

Summary: A pullback to about 1,230 may continue. The target may be reached in 2 or 5 days time.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), the first wave up for minor wave 1 may be complete. Minor wave 2 may unfold lower. Minor wave 2 may not be a very deep correction because the strong upwards pull of a big third wave may force it to be more shallow than otherwise. However, if it is relatively deep, it may find support at the lower edge of the base channel and may offer another opportunity to join the upwards trend. At this stage, it looks like minor wave 2 is unfolding as yet another common expanded flat correction.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,195.22.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 2 may be any corrective structure except a triangle. At this stage, it looks like it may be unfolding as an expanded flat correction, which are very common structures. Within minor wave 2, minute wave b is now a little longer than the common length of minute wave a, but is less than twice the length of minute wave a.

The target for minute wave C is calculated at two degrees and both yield exactly the same price point. This has a reasonable probability.

Minute wave c must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is more common so more likely. At this stage, that looks like what is unfolding.

Within minute wave c, the first and second waves may be complete. A base channel is drawn about minuette waves (i) and (ii). Along the way down, lower degree corrections should now find strong resistance at the upper edge of the base channel.

Minuette wave (iii) should have the power to break below support at the lower edge of the base channel. Once it has done that, then the lower edge should offer resistance.

Minor wave 1 lasted 9 days, 1 longer than a Fibonacci 8. So far minor wave 2 has lasted 3 days. If it continues for 2 more, it may total a Fibonacci 5, and that would give the wave count good proportions and the right look. If it does not end in 2 more days, then the next Fibonacci number in the sequence is 8.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count is in response to queries from members.

Fibonacci ratios are noted on both daily charts, so that members may compare the main and alternate wave counts. This alternate wave count has slightly better Fibonacci ratios. This gives this wave count a reasonable probability. Due mostly to volume, this wave count is judged to have a lower probability than the main wave count.

At this stage, this wave count would be considered confirmed if price makes a new low below 1,195.22. At that stage, the target for intermediate wave (2) or (B) to end would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) or (A) at 1,175.

At the hourly chart level, this wave count would see minute wave c of minor wave B as a five wave structure. This would now have a reasonably good fit.



Gold Weekly 2017
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Last week saw price move higher with a small increase in volume. Overall, the rise in price has some support from volume and this supports the main Elliott wave count, which saw it as the end of a first wave up.

On Balance Volume is not close to resistance, so it gives no signal.

ADX has now been pulled right down from extreme. There is now room again for a longer term trend to develop.


Gold Daily 2016
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The long upper wick on yesterday’s candlestick is bearish, The small real body of today’s candlestick is neutral.

It looks like price has found some resistance at the 200 day moving average.

Volume since the 21st of March has been slowly declining, which is typical of a consolidation. This offers a little support to the Elliott wave count which sees price currently within a second wave correction.

On Balance Volume gives a bearish signal today. This should be given reasonable weight because it often (not always) works well with trend lines. This trend line so far appears to be working well.

Although ADX indicates an upwards trend still, ATR does not support the trend. Sometimes Gold does start its new trends out slowly then accelerates towards the middle and ends with a blowoff top (bull) or a selling climax (bear). Bollinger Bands also indicates a lack of volatility at this stage.

Stochastics supports the main Elliott wave count.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The bottom line for GDX is that it remains range bound. Volume suggests an upwards breakout is still more likely than downwards, but not by much. While this technique works more often than it fails, it is not certain.

This analysis is published @ 08:47 p.m. EST.