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Last week expected a pullback for Silver.

Price moved higher for three days. Thereafter, it has turned down strongly.

Summary: A deeper pullback has most likely begun. The target is about 16.666. A breach of the channel on the main daily chart would add confidence to this view. A new low below 17.317 would add further confidence. This pullback may total a Fibonacci 34 days.

Always follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop on every trade.

2. Do not invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly chart is here.



Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The analysis this week is simplified. This idea was an alternate at the weekly chart level, but it is now the main weekly chart because it has more common structures and less problems.

Upwards movement labelled primary wave A fits perfectly as an impulse.

Primary wave B fits as a deep double zigzag. Primary wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. The target expects it to reach the most common Fibonacci ratio to primary wave A.


Silver daily 2017
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The degree of labelling within upwards movement is moved up one degree. Intermediate wave (1) may have just ended. The most likely point for intermediate wave (2) to end would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) about 16.666.

Intermediate wave (2) may be any corrective structure except a triangle. The first movement within it should be a five down, because this is a movement at intermediate degree.

The blue channel should be breached. If that happens, then more confidence may be had in this main wave count. In the first instance, with price almost at the lower edge, look for a small bounce there.

A new low below 17.317 would invalidate the alternate daily wave count below and provide confidence in this main wave count.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted 50 days, no Fibonacci duration. Intermediate wave (2) may reasonably be expected to last a Fibonacci 34 or 55 days in total.


Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count sees intermediate wave (1) differently. It is possible that it is not over and needs a final fifth wave up to complete it.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 17.317.

The target for minor wave 5 expects the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

If price continues lower here and breaches the lower edge of the blue Elliott channel, then the probability of this alternate would reduce further.



Silver Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The longer term trend is still up. But if this weekly candlestick closes below 18, then it would signal an interruption to the trend. That would change the outlook from bullish to neutral at this stage.


Silver Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

There is support here about 17.70. Next support is about 17.30.

Today completes a very bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This changes the short term outlook from up to neutral or down.

ADX reached extreme, so expect a pullback here.

On Balance Volume may now move lower to find support. Stochastics also may move lower to reach oversold, as may RSI.

There is room here for price to fall.

This analysis is published @ 10:21 p.m. EST.