Select Page

Upwards movement was expected for the main Elliott wave count.

A new alternate is provided today at the hourly chart level in response to volume analysis for Monday’s session.

Summary: It is very concerning that volume today and for Friday does not support upwards movement. Gold is consolidating. The main hourly wave count expects an imminent upwards breakout. The alternate hourly wave count expects a downwards breakout. If price breaks above 1,260.70, then use the target at 1,333. If price breaks below 1,244.59 now, then expect about a week of downwards movement to the original target at 1,230.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement at primary degree is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), the first wave up for minor wave 1 looks complete.

Two wave counts are again provided today at the hourly chart level.

The first wave count expects that today’s upwards movement was the second day of minor wave 3 within intermediate wave (3) within primary wave 3. However, volume does not support this view.

The alternate wave count looks at the possibility that minor wave 2 is not yet over and my continue for a few days yet to the original target at 1,230. The alternate hourly wave count today illustrates the risk here to any long positions. It is essential that any members who have entered long use stops and manage risk carefully. Do not invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,195.22.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that minor wave 2 is over as a completed expanded flat correction. Minute wave c would be 1.51 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave a. Minute wave c ends slightly below minute wave a, so a truncation is avoided.

The last downwards wave here labelled minuette wave (v) will fit neatly as an ending expanding diagonal on the five minute chart.

Minute wave ii is a deep zigzag. If this hourly wave count is correct, this is where minute wave iii should have begun.

This wave count now expects that Gold is just beginning the middle of a large and powerful third wave up. It should have support from volume, it should exhibit an increase in upwards momentum, and it should begin to move price very strongly higher within the next 24 hours.

Some further confidence may be had in this first hourly wave count with a new high above 1,260.70.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,244.59.

A target is provided for minor wave 3 to end. No target is provided for minute wave iii because minute wave iv should be expected to be very brief and shallow.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count is identical to the first hourly wave count, except here the degree of labelling within minute wave c of minor wave 2 is just moved down one degree.

The five wave structure downwards may have only been minuette wave (i) within minute wave c. Current upwards movement so far looks like a three wave structure and may be minuette wave (ii) within minute wave c.

Minute wave c must subdivide as a five wave structure. Within minute wave c, minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 1,260.70.

So far minor wave 2 would have lasted seven days for this alternate wave count. If it continues for another six, it may end in a total Fibonacci thirteen days. This wave count expects overall downwards movement for this week and into next week.

With volume not supporting upwards movement for last Friday and now Monday’s session, this upwards movement does look corrective. Volume analysis favours this alternate wave count.

This wave count illustrates the very real risk today to any long positions.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count is in response to queries from members.

Fibonacci ratios are noted on both daily charts, so that members may compare the main and alternate wave counts. This alternate wave count has slightly better Fibonacci ratios. This gives this wave count a reasonable probability. Due mostly to volume, this wave count is judged to have a lower probability than the main wave count.

At this stage, this wave count would be considered confirmed if price makes a new low below 1,195.22. At that stage, the target for intermediate wave (2) or (B) to end would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) or (A) at 1,175.

Labelling today within minor wave B is changed. This alternate now needs to see a five wave structure upwards complete for minute wave c. Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,263.64.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The small real body and long upper wick for the third weekly candlestick completes a stalled candlestick pattern. “It indicates bulls strength has been at least temporarily exhausted. A stalled candlestick pattern should be used to liquidate or protect longs, but usually not to short. It is generally more consequential at higher price levels.” (Nison, “Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques”, page 100).

Lighter volume for the last upwards week is also concerning for bulls.

On Balance Volume is very close to resistance, but not quite there yet.

This weekly chart offers slightly more support to the alternate hourly Elliott wave count than the main hourly Elliott wave count.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Volume for the last two upwards days does not support the rise in price. This is very concerning now for bulls.

Price is range bound. It looks like a small flag pattern may be moving sideways. Flags are more reliable when they have a slope against the prior trend; this one is not sloped.

Volume declines as price moves sideways and this supports the flag pattern.

Flags are one of the most reliable continuation patterns. The breakout when the consolidation is done is expected to be upwards. In the mid term, this supports the main daily wave count but makes no comment on exactly when the breakout will come.

It is the downwards session of the 23rd of March that has strongest volume during the consolidation suggesting the breakout may be downwards. This conflicts with the expectation of the flag pattern.

On Balance Volume supports the alternate hourly wave count as it expects a red daily candlestick for Tuesday.

ADX, ATR and Bollinger Bands all are in agreement that this market is most likely consolidating.

At this stage, the lack of support from volume is very concerning for long positions. If members have open long positions, it is essential that stops are used to protect your account. If members have not yet entered this market, they would best be advised to wait patiently for a classic breakout and then enter in the direction of the next trend.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The bottom line for GDX is that it remains range bound. Volume suggests an upwards breakout is still more likely than downwards, but not by much. While this technique works more often than it fails, it is not certain.

This analysis is published @ 06:56 p.m. EST.