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The main Elliott wave count expected upwards movement for Tuesday’s session, which is what has happened.

Summary: Look out for strong upwards movement from both Gold and GDX, which may happen within the next 24 hours. The target is at 1,333 in the first instance. If this is wrong, it may not be high enough.

A new low below 1,240.24 would indicate more downwards movement to the original target for this pullback at 1,230.

Trading advice is given under the classic analysis section.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement at primary degree is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), the first wave up for minor wave 1 looks complete.

Two wave counts are again provided today at the hourly chart level.

The first wave count expects that today’s upwards movement was the third day of minor wave 3 within intermediate wave (3) within primary wave 3. A slight increase in volume for today’s upwards session gives some support to this wave count, but volume is still light overall.

A new alternate wave count looks at the possibility that minor wave 2 is not yet over and my continue for a few days yet to the original target at 1,230. The alternate hourly wave count today illustrates the risk here to any long positions. It is essential that any members who have entered long use stops and manage risk carefully. Do not invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,195.22.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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It is possible that minor wave 2 is over as a completed expanded flat correction. Minute wave c would be 1.51 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave a. Minute wave c ends slightly below minute wave a, so a truncation is avoided.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. Gold’s third waves often exhibit swift and strong fifth wave extensions. Minor wave 3 may end with a blowoff top.

Within minor wave 3, minute wave i may be incomplete. Within minute wave i, minuette wave (iii) is 0.44 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 1,250.11. If a new low below 1,250.11 is seen before a new high, then this analysis of minute wave i would be wrong. At that stage, minute wave i would be labeled as complete and downwards movement would be labeled as minute wave ii.

When minute wave i is complete, then minute wave ii may be a quick shallow correction. It may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,240.24.

The next wave up for Gold should exhibit a strong increase in upwards momentum and should have strong support from volume if this main hourly wave count is correct.

A target is provided for minor wave 3 to end. No target is provided for minute wave iii because minute wave iv should be expected to be very brief and shallow.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This idea is new today.

Within minor wave 2, it is possible that only minute wave b ended today.

Minute wave b is longer than the common length of up to 1.38 times the length of minute wave a, but still within the allowable convention of up to 2 times the length of minute wave a.

If minute wave b has ended today, it would subdivide as a regular flat correction.

If price makes a new low below 1,240.24, the main hourly wave count would be invalidated and this alternate hourly wave count would be confirmed. At that stage, expect more downwards movement to the original target for minor wave 2 at 1,230.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count is in response to queries from members.

Fibonacci ratios are noted on both daily charts, so that members may compare the main and alternate wave counts. This alternate wave count has slightly better Fibonacci ratios. This gives this wave count a reasonable probability. Due mostly to volume, this wave count is judged to have a lower probability than the main wave count.

At this stage, this wave count would be considered confirmed if price makes a new low below 1,195.22. At that stage, the target for intermediate wave (2) or (B) to end would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) or (A) at 1,175.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,263.64.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The small real body and long upper wick for the third weekly candlestick completes a stalled candlestick pattern. “It indicates bulls strength has been at least temporarily exhausted. A stalled candlestick pattern should be used to liquidate or protect longs, but usually not to short. It is generally more consequential at higher price levels.” (Nison, “Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques”, page 100).

Lighter volume for the last upwards week is also concerning for bulls.

On Balance Volume is very close to resistance, but not quite there yet.

This weekly chart offers slightly more support to the alternate hourly Elliott wave count than the main hourly Elliott wave count.


Gold Daily 2016
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Another upwards day has some small support from volume, but volume remains relatively light. The bottom line is Gold is still range bound.

This looks like a flag pattern. Flags are reliable continuation patterns, and here the breakout would be expected to be upwards. Flags are normally accompanied by declining volume as price moves sideways.

On Balance Volume today gives an important bullish signal with a break above the purple trend line. This line has only been tested three times before and has a reasonable slope, so these two aspects reduce its technical significance. It has been reasonably long held though, which gives it some significance. The signal today offers good support to the main daily Elliott wave count.

Overall, this chart today is more bullish than yesterday but not strongly bullish.

The longer price continues to move sideways the closer the breakout will be, and the more explosive it may be. Stay alert now for a very strong upwards movement.

Trading advice:

Do not expect the next correction to offer a leisurely entry to this market; it may be over quickly and may be more shallow than expected. Long positions should now be profitable. Move stops to breakeven or just below 1,240.24.

For members still waiting to enter this market use corrections as an opportunity to enter long. Use the channel on the hourly chart. Each time price touches the lower edge presents an opportunity to enter. Stops must technically be set just below 1,240.24. Reduce position size so that only 1-5% of equity is risked.

Alternatively, more cautious members may like to wait for the breakout and then enter in the new trend direction, which is expected to be upwards. This approach requires vigilance.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The bottom line for GDX is that it remains range bound. Volume suggests an upwards breakout is still more likely than downwards, but not by much. While this technique works more often than it fails, it is not certain.

On Balance Volume for GDX also gives a bullish signal today. The purple trend line on On Balance Volume is long held, not too steeply sloped, and has been tested five times before. It has good technical significance. This signal should be given reasonable weight. Expect it is now very likely that GDX will break out upwards.

Look out for a strong upwards movement from GDX.

This analysis is published @ 07:02 p.m. EST.