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A little sideways movement followed by another wave down was expected in last analysis. This is what has happened.

Summary: The new target for Monday is 1,214. If this is wrong, it may be too low because price is at strong support and On Balance Volume is at support at the weekly and daily chart levels. Look out for a bounce to begin next week.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last historic analysis with monthly and weekly charts is here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It is important that members keep weekly and monthly charts in mind when viewing daily charts. Elliott wave is fractal; be aware of the bigger picture.

The first two weekly charts for cycle wave b continuing will be followed on a daily basis. This first wave count sees cycle wave b as a combination: zigzag – X – flat.

The second structure in the combination, a flat for primary wave Y, is incomplete.

The upwards wave labelled here primary wave W will fit neatly as a zigzag.

The downwards wave labelled here primary wave X does fit best as a zigzag. This allows a triangle to be seen in the position labelled intermediate wave (B).

Now the upwards wave from the low of December 2016 to the last high on the 17th of April fits best and looks like a zigzag. This indicates primary wave Y is most likely subdividing as a flat correction.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the flat correction of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,140.27. The most likely corrective structures to achieve the deep correction required for B waves within flats are single or multiple zigzags. These begin with a five, then a three in the opposite direction. So far a five down looks close to completion; when complete, it should then be followed by a three up.

Minor wave B, when it arrives, may be deep but may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,294.96.

When minor wave A is complete and is confirmed so by a breach of the channel on the hourly chart, then the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios will be used as targets for minor wave B. Neither target can be favoured because B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and behaviour; they may be shallow or very deep.

When minor waves A and B are complete, then a target may be calculated for minor wave C downwards to end the zigzag of intermediate wave (B), using the Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C. That cannot be done yet.

A new low below 1,195.22 by any amount at any time frame would invalidate the alternate wave count below and provide confirmation of this main wave count (all three weekly versions of it).


Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2 Hourly 2017
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This downwards movement so far looks very much like an impulse. Fibonacci ratios at minute and minuette degrees are noted.

The best fit channel is very important. Add a mid line. Expect price to continue down while price remains within the lower half. When price breaks into the upper half, it would most likely be the end of minor wave A and the start of minor wave B. A breach of the upper edge of the channel would provide strong indication that minor wave A is over.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,282.01. However, Gold’s fourth waves are typically very shallow; minute wave iv is not expected to get anywhere near the invalidation point.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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This hourly chart shows more detail of the end of minute wave iii.

The first target given at the end of Friday’s session, which was 1,222, has been met and slightly exceeded at the close. But the structure of minute wave v is incomplete, so a new target is calculated. If this target is wrong, it may be too low. There is strong support here for price and from On Balance Volume, which may halt the fall in price temporarily.

In the short term, a new high above 1,235.52 could not be a second wave correction within minute wave v, so if / when that happens minute wave v must be over. That would also bring price up into the upper half of the best fit channel. A new high above 1,235.52 would be a strong signal that a low is in place and a bounce has begun.

The upcoming bounce is expected to be a B wave. These do not usually present the best trading opportunities. However, a movement at minor degree usually last weeks and can present some trading opportunities, but members are warned that minor wave B may be very choppy and overlapping. Only more experienced members are advised to trade a minor degree B wave. Risk management is especially critical and traders must be nimble and take profits more quickly.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This weekly chart now looks bearish. Volume is bearish. The strong weekly candlestick looks very bearish.

Support for price and On Balance Volume may halt the fall in price temporarily, a bounce about here looks like a very reasonable expectation.


Gold Daily 2016
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Support for On Balance Volume at the daily chart level may also assist to halt the fall in price here. If it does not, there is room for price to fall further. RSI is not yet oversold and there is no divergence yet between price and Stochastics.

The long upper wick on the last daily candlestick is bearish.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The gap down noted in last analysis is now closed. It is not a breakaway gap. It is now an exhaustion gap.

The strong bullish candlestick for Friday completes a Morning Star reversal pattern, albeit not a perfect one. The bullish candlestick for Friday does not have support from volume.

A bounce may be seen beginning here for GDX. There is strong resistance about 22.75.

This analysis is published @ 09:45 p.m. EST on 6th May, 2017.