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A bounce was expected to end about 1,281. The high for Wednesday’s session fell just 1.94 short of this target to reach 1,279.06. Strong downwards movement was expected following the bounce.

Summary: A small third wave down may be beginning. Stops for short positions may be set just above today’s high or at breakeven if the entry point was close to the high. The target range is 1,158 to 1,149, but this may be too low for profits. There should be a B wave bounce along the way down.

Always use a stop. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. However, at the weekly chart level, it looks possible it may continue higher. This possibility must be acknowledged while price remains above 1,214.81. Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Primary wave C may end when price comes up to touch the Magee trend line.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. Members may like to review them at this stage. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (Y) may now be a complete zigzag if it is accepted that a triangle completed in the position labelled minor wave B. This has a perfect fit on the hourly chart.

The best fit channel about intermediate wave (Y) is now properly breached with three full daily candlesticks below and not touching the lower trend line. This adds a little confidence that a high may be in place.

After the channel breach, price has now curved up to retest resistance at the lower edge of the channel. Thereafter, price moved strongly lower. Resistance has held and is now strengthened. The invalidation point may now be moved down. Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 1,279.06.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and would provide strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over. A new low below 1,214.81 would also invalidate all other weekly alternates published in last historic analysis (this is linked to above). This would provide final confirmation of this main wave count.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. Within primary wave D, minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,295.64.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 2 fits as a deep 0.54 zigzag, falling a little short of the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 and a little below the lower edge of the best fit channel.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as a simple impulse. After counting the subdivisions on the five minute chart, it looks like minute wave i was complete at today’s low. Minute wave ii may end about either the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratios of minute wave i. Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,279.06.

When minute wave ii is complete, then an increase in downwards momentum should be expected for minute wave iii of minor wave 3.

A target is provided today for minor wave 3, but be aware that the following correction for minor wave 4 may be shallow and very brief.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long upper wick of this weekly candlestick is bearish. Volume is bearish. Divergence between price and RSI at this last high is bearish. ATR is bearish.

Price may have found resistance just below prior strong support at 1,305 to 1,310.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

On this chart, what the last daily candlestick does not show is the strong fall in price to a new low in the final two hours of the New York session. I am suspicious that this last daily candlestick may change in coming hours by StockCharts. If it does, then it would make a difference to the volume profile.

The long upper wick on this last daily candlestick is bearish.

On Balance Volume may be at resistance; the last signal it gave was bearish. Give this some reasonable weight.

The only concern for the Elliott wave count is contracting Bollinger Bands as price moves lower. Normally, for a healthy trend Bollinger Bands should expand. They may yet do so.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

On Balance Volume and volume both look very bearish today. A downwards trend may be beginning for GDX.

This analysis is published @ 09:11 p.m. EST.