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Overall more downwards movement was expected and did happen, but a small bounce was expected to end about 1,270 first and that did not happen.

Summary: A small third wave down should continue tomorrow. Expect any price shocks to be to the downside, with upside limited to no further than 1,266.43. The short term target is 1,221 but that may be too high a point to exit shorts. The longer term target at 1,158 – 1,149 may be too low. Move stops down to protect some profit now and hold on.

Always use a stop. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. However, at the weekly chart level, it looks possible it may continue higher. This possibility must be acknowledged while price remains above 1,214.81. Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Primary wave C may end when price comes up to touch the Magee trend line.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. Members may like to review them at this stage. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (Y) may now be a complete zigzag if it is accepted that a triangle completed in the position labelled minor wave B. This has a perfect fit on the hourly chart.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 1,279.06.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and would provide strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. Within primary wave D, minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,295.64.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 2 fits as a deep 0.54 zigzag, falling a little short of the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 and a little below the lower edge of the best fit channel.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as a simple impulse. So far, within minor wave 3, minute waves i and ii are complete. It is also possible now that minute wave iii could be complete at today’s low; the following and current correction has so far remained below minute wave i price territory at 1,267.53. Although that labelling would be valid, it would see minute wave iii much shorter than minute wave i. This is possible, but the probability is very low. What looks much more likely so far is only minuette wave (i) is complete within minute wave i.

So far there would now be three first and second waves complete. This suggests a further and strong increase in downwards momentum to come very soon. There may be a price shock on a news release within the next 24 hours. If there is, then it may see an initial short lived upwards spike to end about 1,257 or 1,261 followed by strong downwards movement to new lows.

Minuette wave (ii) may be completing as either a regular flat or a zigzag. It may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 1,266.43.

A target is provided for minor wave 3, but be aware that the following correction for minor wave 4 may be shallow and very brief.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long upper wick of this weekly candlestick is bearish. Volume is bearish. Divergence between price and RSI at this last high is bearish. ATR is bearish.

Price may have found resistance just below prior strong support at 1,305 to 1,310.


Gold Daily 2016
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Support about 1,260 has given way. Next strong support is just below 1,240.

The long upper wick on today’s candlestick is bearish. There is some support from volume.

Give weight to bearish signals from On Balance Volume.

There is room for price to fall. RSI and Stochastics are still in neutral territory.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The upper wick on today’s candlestick is bearish. Some support from volume is bearish.

Give reasonable weight to On Balance Volume because it is very bearish. Next support is about 21.50.

This analysis is published @ 08:37 p.m. EST.