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Upwards movement was limited to no higher than 1,266.43. A small inside day had its high at 1,257.12.

Summary: Monday may see price continue sideways for a little bit longer. Thereafter, it should fall. The next wave down may be limited to no longer than 27.23, which gives a target about 1,230.

Always use a stop. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. However, at the weekly chart level, it looks possible it may continue higher. This possibility must be acknowledged while price remains above 1,214.81. Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Primary wave C may end when price comes up to touch the Magee trend line.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. Members may like to review them at this stage. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (Y) may now be a complete zigzag if it is accepted that a triangle completed in the position labelled minor wave B. This has a perfect fit on the hourly chart.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 1,279.06.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and would provide strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. Within primary wave D, minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,295.64.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 2 fits as a deep 0.54 zigzag, falling a little short of the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 and a little below the lower edge of the best fit channel.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as a simple impulse, and now it may be complete.

The wave count is adjusted today to fit with momentum on MACD; the third wave should be the strongest portion of movement. It is also adjusted to fit with the look at the daily chart level. Both the corrections of minor waves 2 and 4 show up at higher time frames now, so they look like they should be labelled at the same degree.

If minor wave 3 is over, then it is shorter than minor wave 1. A core Elliott wave rule states a third wave may never be the shortest. To meet this rule minor wave 5 will be limited to no longer than equality with minor wave 3 at 27.23. It may end about 1,230.

Minor waves 2 and 4 exhibit good alternation. Minor wave 4 may continue further sideways when markets open on Monday to complete as a combination or a triangle.

If minor wave 4 completes as a triangle, then minor wave 5 may be remarkably short and brief. The target about 1,230 may then be too low.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 1,259.75.

When minor waves 4 and 5 are complete, then an impulse would be complete for intermediate wave (A). A bounce, which may be deep, would then be expected for intermediate wave (B) and should last at least a week and probably longer.

Short positions may be exited if the target at 1,230 is met or upwards movement breaks above the blue Elliott channel after new lows.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long upper wicks on the last two weekly candlesticks are bearish. Volume supports the downwards movement in price, so this is not suspicious.

Declining ATR fits with the Elliott wave count at the weekly chart level; this is normal for triangles.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Support about 1,260 has given way. Next strong support is just below 1,240.

A small inside day for Friday completes a very small spinning top candlestick pattern. This puts the trend temporarily from down to neutral. A lack of support for upwards movement during Friday’s session is bearish; bulls lacked strength on Friday.

Still give reasonable weight to bearish signals from On Balance Volume. This supports the Elliott wave count.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

GDX sometimes leads the way for Gold. It is now running out of steam with downwards movement having smaller range and weaker volume. This may precede a bounce for both Gold and GDX.

Any upwards movement here should be expected to most likely be a counter trend bounce. On Balance Volume is very bearish indeed. Give that indicator reasonable weight.

This analysis is published @ 06:25 p.m. EST on 17th June, 2017.