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A little sideways movement was expected to be followed by more downwards movement. This is mostly what happened, although price did not move any higher first.

Summary: Downwards movement in the short term should be limited to 1,229.88. The target is now 1,235, which may be met in one more session. Thereafter, a multi-day to multi-week bounce should begin for wave B.

Always use a stop. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. However, at the weekly chart level, it looks possible it may continue higher. This possibility must be acknowledged while price remains above 1,214.81. Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Primary wave C may end when price comes up to touch the Magee trend line.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. Members may like to review them at this stage. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (Y) may now be a complete zigzag if it is accepted that a triangle completed in the position labelled minor wave B. This has a perfect fit on the hourly chart.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and would provide strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. Within primary wave D, minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,295.64.

So far a five down looks to be almost complete, which may be intermediate wave (A). Within intermediate wave (A), minor waves 1 through to 4 now look complete at the daily and hourly chart levels. Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 1,257.12.

Draw an Elliott channel about intermediate wave (A) and copy it over to the hourly chart. Price is finding support at the lower edge.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 3 was shorter than minor wave 1. This limits minor wave 5 to no longer than equality in length with minor wave 3, so that minor wave 3 is not the shortest actionary wave within the impulse. This limit is at 1,229.88.

There is perfect alternation between the deep zigzag of minor wave 2 and the shallow combination of minor wave 4.

Fifth waves most often exhibit Fibonacci ratios to first waves. The target calculated expects this.

Within minor wave 5, the correction of minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,253.92.

A best fit channel is drawn about minor wave 5. When this channel is breached by upwards movement, that may be the earliest indication that minor wave 5 would be over.

Members may like to exit short positions either when the target at 1,235 is met, or when the best fit channel is breached by upwards movement.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long upper wicks on the last two weekly candlesticks are bearish. Volume supports the downwards movement in price, so this is not suspicious.

Declining ATR fits with the Elliott wave count at the weekly chart level; this is normal for triangles.


Gold Daily 2016
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Next support is just below 1,240, which aligns reasonably well with the Elliott wave target at 1,235.

Volume is slightly increased for Monday’s downwards day and On Balance Volume gives another bearish signal. Overall, volume is now declining and the fall may end soon when price finds good support. The 200 day moving average is now close by.

This chart is still bearish, but the fall in price is now showing some small weakness. Expect price to keep falling but look out for a bounce soon.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

GDX keeps falling. Look now for support about 21.5. Downwards movement is showing some weakness but may not be done yet. There is no divergence with price and Stochastics, and RSI is not yet oversold.

This analysis is published @ 07:43 p.m. EST.