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Upwards movement was favoured as more likely for Thursday’s session. This is what has happened.

Summary: A new high above 1,259.75 would indicate a bounce to last about two weeks has begun. A new low below 1,241.33 would indicate downwards movement is not over yet; the first target for it to end is at 1,225.

While price remains below 1,259.75 and above 1,241.33, the balance of probability will still favour a bounce in its early stages.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. However, at the weekly chart level, it looks possible it may continue higher. This possibility must be acknowledged while price remains above 1,214.81. Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Primary wave C may end when price comes up to touch the Magee trend line.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. Members may like to review them at this stage. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (Y) may now be a complete zigzag if it is accepted that a triangle completed in the position labelled minor wave B. This has a perfect fit on the hourly chart.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and would provide strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. Within primary wave D, minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,295.64.

At the hourly chart level, intermediate wave (A) may now be complete. However, this view requires a new high above 1,259.75 now before confidence may be had in it. If intermediate wave (A) is over, then it would have lasted 10 days (not a Fibonacci number). For the wave count to have the right look intermediate wave (B) may be at least even in duration with intermediate wave (A).

Intermediate wave (B) may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures. It may be a swift sharp zigzag with a strong upwards slope, or it may be a shallow sideways complicated combination, triangle or flat. It is impossible until it is almost complete to know with confidence what structure it has taken. B waves exhibit the greatest variety in price behaviour and structure, so they do not present good trading opportunities.

Only the most experienced of traders should attempt to trade B waves, even at intermediate degree. If members choose to attempt to trade intermediate wave (B) upwards, it is my strong advice to reduce risk to only 1-3% of equity. It is essential that stops are always used.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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If intermediate wave (A) is complete, then a new wave up at intermediate degree should start with a five wave structure upwards on the hourly chart. This is incomplete. It may be unfolding as a leading expanding diagonal.

When minor wave A is complete, if it is a five, then minor wave B may not move beyond its start below 1,241.33.

The first five up may also be moved down one degree; this may be only minute wave i of minor wave A. If it is minute wave i, then minute wave ii may not move beyond its start below 1,241.33.

If intermediate wave (A) is complete, then the end of minor wave A corresponds with the strongest momentum as shown by MACD. This first wave count fits better with MACD, which is why it is the main wave count.

Minor wave 5 exhibits double divergence with MACD.

A new high above 1,259.75 would invalidate the alternate hourly wave count below and provide confidence in this main wave count.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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It is also possible that intermediate wave (A) is incomplete and minor wave 5 is still underway.

Minor wave 3 is slightly longer than minor wave 1. Minor wave 3 may have ended with an extended minute wave v, which is typical for Gold.

However, when fifth waves of third wave impulses extend they usually (not always) also exhibit strength. This one does not. This alternate does not have as good a fit with MACD.

Minor wave 2 was a zigzag. Minor wave 4 may exhibit alternation as a regular flat. It may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 1,259.75.



Gold Weekly 2017
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The long upper wicks on the last two weekly candlesticks are bearish. Volume supports the downwards movement in price, so this is not suspicious.

Declining ATR fits with the Elliott wave count at the weekly chart level; this is normal for triangles.


Gold Daily 2016
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Volume today is slightly bullish, but the long upper wick on today’s candlestick is bearish. This looks like a counter trend movement which fits expectations from the Elliott wave count.



GDX Daily 2016
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GDX again looks more clearly bullish than Gold today.

If the gap up today is a breakaway gap from a small consolidation, then the lower edge of the gap should offer support. Breakaway gaps are not usually closed.

This analysis is published @ 07:18 p.m. EST.