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A downwards reaction was expected for Monday, which is exactly what has happened.

Summary: The main wave count now expects upwards movement for at least one session to 1,262 – 1,265. A new high above 1,254.66 would add substantial confidence to this target zone.

However, there is strong indication from volume today that downwards movement is not over. Another downwards day may unfold before price turns upwards towards the target.

Always use a stop on every trade. Do not invest more than 1-3% of equity at this time on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. However, at the weekly chart level, it looks possible it may continue higher. This possibility must be acknowledged while price remains above 1,214.81. Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Primary wave C may end when price comes up to touch the Magee trend line.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. Members may like to review them at this stage. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (Y) may now be a complete zigzag if it is accepted that a triangle completed in the position labelled minor wave B. This has a perfect fit on the hourly chart.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and would provide strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. Within primary wave D, intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) above 1,295.64.

Intermediate wave (A) lasted only ten days. So far intermediate wave (B) has lasted four. If it concludes within one more session, it may total a Fibonacci five days. This would be a reasonable proportion, but it is also quite possible it may continue for longer to have better proportion to intermediate wave (A).

So far it looks like intermediate wave (B) may be completing as an expanded flat correction. It is also possible to move the degree of labelling within this expanded flat down one degree; it may only be minor wave A or W of a more time consuming flat or combination for intermediate wave (B).

The main hourly chart below follows on from the labelling here on the daily chart.

For the alternate hourly chart below, the end of intermediate wave (B) would be labelled as complete at the high of minor wave A on the 23rd of June.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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An expanded flat may be unfolding. This may be intermediate wave (B) in its entirety as labelled. Or the degree of labelling may be moved down one degree so that it may be an expanded flat for minor wave A or an expanded flat for minor wave W, as the first structure in a double combination.

The common range for B waves within flats is from 1 to 1.38 the length of their A waves. Here, minor wave B is within the common range.

Within minor wave C, the correction of minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,237.06.

In the short term, if price makes a new low below 1,237.06, then it would be possible that minor wave B is moving lower as another double zigzag.

There is no rule stating a limit for B waves within flat corrections. There is a convention though that B waves within flats are so rarely longer than twice the length of their A waves, that the idea of a flat should be discarded when that price point is reached. Here, minor wave B would be twice the length of minor wave A at 1,223.92. Only a new low below this point would see the idea of an expanded flat unfolding discarded.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate looks at the very unlikely possibility that intermediate wave (B) was complete in just three days as a shallow double zigzag.

If intermediate wave (B) is complete, then intermediate wave (C) downwards should begin with a five wave structure for minor wave 1. Within minor wave 1, if minute wave iv continues further, it may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,254.66.

Only a very small confidence may be had in this alternate wave count if price makes a new low below 1,237.06. The main wave count would still be valid and this wave count would remain an alternate.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long lower wick of the last weekly candlestick is bullish. This puts the short term trend from down to neutral.

Lighter volume for the last week does not support the fall in price. In conjunction with the longer lower wick and doji candlestick, a bounce here looks like a very real possibility.

Declining ATR for a long time fits neatly with the expectation of a large triangle unfolding.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price found strong resistance today just below 1,260. Support from volume for downwards movement today suggests more downwards movement for the next session despite the bullishness of the long lower wick on this candlestick.

Resistance at the yellow trend line for On Balance Volume is strengthened. This does not preclude an upwards day tomorrow, but it would limit upwards movement to only possibly one session if resistance at that line holds.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

GDX looks more bullish than Gold today.

A lack of support from volume for downwards movement today is bullish. The long upper wick is bearish.

This analysis is published @ 07:51 p.m. EST.