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Gold remains within the consolidation zone after another day of essentially sideways movement, which was expected.

Summary: A downwards breakout from this consolidation may now come within the next 24 hours. A new low now below 1,240.17 would indicate price may be breaking out downwards.

A new high above 1,253.82 would indicate a short lived false upwards breakout, before an eventual downwards breakout.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. However, at the weekly chart level, it looks possible it may continue higher. This possibility must be acknowledged while price remains above 1,214.81. Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. Members may like to review them at this stage. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (Y) may now be a complete zigzag if it is accepted that a triangle completed in the position labelled minor wave B. This has a perfect fit on the hourly chart.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and would provide strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. Within primary wave D, intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) above 1,295.64.

Intermediate wave (A) lasted only ten days. So far intermediate wave (B) has lasted seven days. If it concludes within one more session, it may total a Fibonacci eight days. This would be a reasonable proportion to intermediate wave (A).

So far it looks like intermediate wave (B) may be completing as an expanded flat correction. It is also possible to move the degree of labelling within this expanded flat down one degree; it may only be minor wave A or W of a more time consuming flat or combination for intermediate wave (B).

The main hourly chart below follows on from the labelling here on the daily chart.

The alternate would see minor wave A complete in the same position but minor wave B incomplete as a triangle.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It is looking increasingly likely that intermediate wave (B) is unfolding as a running contracting or running barrier triangle.

Minor wave A is a double zigzag within the triangle. This means that all remaining sub-waves must be simple A-B-C corrections, most likely single zigzags. Minor wave C looks like a three wave zigzag and should be complete.

Minor wave D now also looks complete as a single zigzag. This main wave count now only requires minor wave E upwards to complete. E waves most commonly fall short of the A-C trend line, so expect this as most likely for this triangle. If they don’t fall short, then the other less likely point for E waves to end is with a slight overshoot of the A-C trend line.

Minor wave E may now end quite quickly. It should be expected to end within the next 24 hours, before the next analysis is published.

Triangles normally adhere very well indeed to their trend lines. Here, there are small overshoots of the A-C trend line for part of minor wave D, and this is acceptable, but a breach of either trend line while the triangle is incomplete would not be acceptable. The upper A-C trend line and the lower B-D trend line should offer strong resistance and support while the triangle completes.

Minor wave E may not move beyond the end of minor wave C above 1,253.82.

If this main wave count is invalidated with a new high above 1,253.82, then the alternate below would be used.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It is very important to always consider alternate ways of labelling a structure that looks like is unfolding as an Elliott wave triangle. Triangles are very tricky structures; it is only clear exactly how they unfolded when they end.

A flat correction may still be unfolding. Within the flat correction, minor wave A is a double zigzag and this is classified as a three; A waves within flats subdivide as threes. Within the flat correction, minor wave B must at its end retrace a minimum 0.9 length of minor wave A, so minor wave B must end at or below 1,243.07.

Within the triangle of minor wave B, minute wave c may now be complete and minute wave d may now be unfolding higher.

For a contracting triangle, minute wave d may not move above the end of minute wave c at 1,253.82; minute wave d may end when price comes up to touch the upper b-d trend line. For a barrier triangle, minute wave d may end about the same level as minute wave b; a barrier triangle will remain valid as long as the b-d trend line remains essentially flat.

Minute wave e may not move beyond the end of minute wave c below 1,240.17.

This alternate still expects some sideways movement for another one to two days followed by a short upwards thrust for minor wave C, which may look like a false upwards breakout.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long lower wick of the last weekly candlestick is bullish. This puts the short term trend from down to neutral.

Lighter volume for the last week does not support the fall in price. In conjunction with the longer lower wick and doji candlestick, a bounce here looks like a very real possibility.

Declining ATR for a long time fits neatly with the expectation of a large triangle unfolding.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price is range bound again with resistance about 1,260 and support about 1,240. So far, during this small consolidation, it is two downwards days that have strongest volume suggesting a downwards breakout is more likely than upwards. This supports the main hourly Elliott wave count over the alternate.

There is a little distance to go before On Balance Volume may find resistance.

ATR and ADX agree that price is consolidating.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The last gap has its lower limit at 22.13. This gap is closed today. It may now offer resistance.

GDX is also consolidating. Resistance is about 22.80 and support is next at 21.5. During the consolidation, it is a day which had a balance of volume downwards that has strongest volume suggesting a downwards breakout is more likely than upwards.

GDX may again be leading the way for Gold. GDX looks like it may be beginning to break down out of the consolidation. Today’s downwards day breaks below support at the last gap at 22.13, on a downwards day that exhibits an increase in volume. This may be a downwards breakout. Look now for resistance about 22.13 to be tested before price moves down and away.

This analysis is published @ 06:48 p.m. EST.