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Downwards movement remained just above the invalidation point on the daily chart. The target is adjusted.

Summary: The Elliott wave target for upwards movement to end is now 1,308, just below the classic analysis target at 1,310, giving a $2 range with a reasonable probability.

Corrections are an opportunity to join the trend.

Always use a stop. Do not invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

At this stage, all weekly charts published yesterday expect more upwards movement. Because there is no difference in the direction expected, only this one more likely weekly chart will be published on a daily basis.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

A common range for the length of triangle sub-waves is from 0.8 to 0.85 the length of the prior wave in the opposite direction. This gives a range of 1,325 to 1,337 for primary wave C. The new target calculated today would see primary wave C end reasonably short of this common range.

When primary wave C is complete, then for a contracting triangle primary wave D may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08, or for a barrier triangle primary wave D may end about the same level as 1,123.08 (so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat; this invalidation point is not black and white).

Primary wave C may end when price comes up to touch the Magee trend line.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The new target calculated today would see price end at a zone of prior very strong support, about 1,305 to 1,310. This target would see primary C end short of its common range, which is okay. That is a rough guideline only and not a rule.

Intermediate wave (Y) is subdividing as a zigzag. So far minor waves A and B look complete and minor wave C looks incomplete. Within minor wave C, the correction for minute wave iv may not move back into minute wave i price territory below 1,269.45.

Minor wave C must end with an impulsive count of 5. This requires one final upwards wave.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Downwards movement invalidated the last published hourly chart.

Downwards movement may still be minute wave iv as it has remained above first wave price territory. There is alternation between the expanded flat of minute wave ii and the zigzag of minute wave iv. Price remains within the best fit channel.

The target is recalculated. The ratio of equality with minute wave iii is chosen in this instance because it fits so neatly with the classic analysis target and a zone of very strong prior support, which should now offer resistance.

If this hourly chart is invalidated in the next 24 hours, then it would be possible that primary wave C could be over and primary wave D may be underway to move lower for about two to four weeks.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Last week completes an Advance Block candlestick pattern. This is a three candlestick pattern; three green candlesticks with the second and third candlesticks showing signs of weakening. However, this pattern does not come within a mature upwards trend, so the warning is weak and further weakened by the longer lower wicks on the last two candlesticks, which are bullish.

Declining volume along with declining range is bearish.

Strong divergence between price and On Balance Volume is bearish.

There is still room for price to rise further, but the short lived upwards trend at this time looks weak.

The maroon trend line is added to this weekly chart, using the same anchor points as the Elliott wave charts.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The pennant pattern suggests an upwards breakout (which happened) to be followed by more upwards movement to the target at 1,310. So far it looks like this target may be met now.

There is considerable leeway in exactly how the trend lines on On Balance Volume may be drawn. A new line is added in pink today. On Balance Volume has slightly breached the longer purple line and is now sitting on the shorter pink line. It may be at support today.

There is some increase in volume for today’s downwards movement and this is bearish. But volume for these two downwards days is still lighter than the prior upwards day, so it is not overly bearish. Another long lower wick is bullish.

With ADX extreme and Stochastics overbought, the upside is limited. The target looks about right.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long lower wick on today’s candlestick is bullish.

The bearish signal from On Balance Volume today should be given weight. The upside for GDX now may be very limited or over.

This analysis is published @ 06:06 p.m. EST.