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The invalidation point on the daily chart was breached indicating a trend change.

Summary: It looks like Gold has had a trend change, but this will not be finally confirmed until price makes a new low below 1,214.81. Because the short side involves reasonable risk it is essential members use stops, which should be set just above 1,295.64.

Look for a second wave bounce early next week to find resistance at the lower edge of the yellow best fit channel. That may provide a good entry to go short.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

At this stage, all weekly charts published expect more upwards movement. Because there is no difference in the direction expected, only this one more likely weekly chart will be published on a daily basis.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. However, at the weekly chart level, it looks like is possible it may continue higher. This possibility must be acknowledged while price remains above 1,214.81. Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Primary wave C may end when price comes up to touch the Magee trend line.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (Y) may now be a complete zigzag if it is accepted that a triangle completed in the position labelled minor wave B. This has a perfect fit on the hourly chart. So that all subdivisions can be seen, a 2 hourly chart is provided this week.

The best fit channel about intermediate wave (Y) is overshot, price has closed well below it. This indicates a possible trend change.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and would provide strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over. A new low below 1,214.81 would also invalidate all other weekly alternates published in last historic analysis (this is linked to above). This would provide final confirmation of this main wave count.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. Within primary wave D, minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,295.64.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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This 2 hourly chart shows the whole structure of the zigzag of intermediate wave (Y). There is a reasonable Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C, which is just less than a 10% variation of the length of minor wave C.

The best fit channel is breached at this time frame.

There is longer term bearish divergence between price and MACD at the last high indicating weakness. MACD is now below the zero line, also bearish.

When minor wave 1 is complete, then minor wave 2 may find resistance at prior support of the lower edge of the best fit channel.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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So far it does look like a five wave impulse is completing lower. Within minor wave 1, minute wave iii does not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i. It should be expected that minute wave v would exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii. Two targets are given.

When the pink Elliott channel is clearly breached on the hourly chart, that would provide strong indication that minor wave 1 should be over and minor wave 2 should be underway. At that stage, draw a Fibonacci retracement along the length of minor wave 1. If a Fibonacci retracement aligns with resistance at the lower edge of the yellow best fit channel, that should be a target for minor wave 2.

Minor wave 2 must subdivide as a corrective structure. It may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,295.65.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long upper wick of this weekly candlestick is bearish. Volume is bearish. Divergence between price and RSI at this last high is bearish. ATR is bearish.

Price may have found resistance just below prior strong support at 1,305 to 1,310.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The target of 1,310 calculated from the Pennant pattern may not be met.

A decline in volume for the last downwards day is slightly bullish, and the long lower wicks on the last two daily candlesticks are slightly bullish. This may precede a strong bounce.

On Balance Volume is at support. This may serve to halt the fall in price here for a bounce.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The bearish signal from On Balance Volume today should be given weight. The upside for GDX now may be very limited or over.

Volume for the last two downwards days is light and declining. Look for a bounce in GDX early next week.

This analysis is published @ 11:25 p.m. EST on 10th June, 2017.