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More downwards movement was expected. A lower low and a lower high for Monday fits expectations.

Summary: The trend is still most likely down.

Profit target is now at 1,183 (measured rule) or 1,160 (Elliott wave).

Always use a stop and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. A new low on Friday below 1,214.81 cannot be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) within primary wave C, so now primary wave C must be over.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and has now provided strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149. A Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target, which is just above this common range, for intermediate wave (C) now that intermediate waves (A) and (B) look to be complete.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. With a triangle complete in the position labelled intermediate wave (B), the idea of a zigzag unfolding lower is strengthened. This may not be labelled a second wave as second waves do not subdivide as triangles. Triangles appear in positions of fourth waves, B waves, or within combinations.

Intermediate wave (A) lasted only ten days. Intermediate wave (B) has lasted eight days. As intermediate wave (C) is expected to be longer in length than intermediate wave (A), it may also be longer in duration and may last a Fibonacci thirteen days as the first expectation or a Fibonacci twenty one days as the next expectation. So far it has lasted only six days.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is much more likely; so let us assume that is the more likely structure until proven otherwise, or until some overlapping suggests a diagonal may be possible.

Within intermediate wave (C), minor waves 1 and 2 are now complete. Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,228.96.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 2 was over as a brief and shallow expanded flat correction.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as a simple impulse. It may be close to complete if the target is correct. At 1,201 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

When minor wave 3 is complete, then the invalidation point for minor wave 4 moves down to the end of minor wave 1 at 1,219.05.

So far, within the impulse of minor wave 3, minute wave iii now looks complete. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii, making it more likely that minute wave v will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either. Within the completed impulse of minute wave iii, there is perfect alternation between the deep expanded flat correction of minuette wave (ii) and the shallow zigzag of minuette wave (iv).

Within the incomplete impulse of minor wave 3, minute waves ii and iv are exhibiting alternation in structure. If minute wave iv is deep, they would also exhibit alternation in depth. The 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii at 1,218 looks like a reasonable target for minute wave iv. This would also see price find resistance at the upper edge of the acceleration channel.

Minor wave 2 shows up on the daily chart lasting three days. For the wave count at the daily chart level to have the right look, minor wave 4 should also show up on the daily chart lasting a few days. Minor wave 4 may be the next multi day interruption to this downwards trend.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This chart offers strong support to the Elliott wave count.

The breach of the orange trend line by price is bearish. On Balance Volume gives a reasonable bearish signal, which should be given weight. Volume is bearish. ADX is slightly bearish. RSI is bearish.

Only ATR indicates weakness for the bigger picture (the Elliott wave triangle at the weekly chart level), but this does not preclude price from falling further here though.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Monday’s candlestick is very bullish. Although Monday has moved price lower with a lower low and lower high, the balance of volume was upwards and the candlestick closed green. Volume does not support upwards movement during Monday’s session.

There is single day bullish divergence between price and RSI today: price made a new low, but RSI did not. When RSI does this after reaching oversold, this is often (not always) a signal of a low in place. However, in this case the signal is weak because RSI was barely oversold.

While this chart is on balance mostly bearish, it does look like the trend may be stretched. Protect short positions with stops.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

GDX today looks more bullish. The strong outside day for Monday completes a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, suggesting a low may be in place. With Stochastics exhibiting double bullish divergence while oversold, this pattern has some support.

This one session has changed the short term outlook for GDX to bullish to neutral.

This analysis is published @ 08:47 p.m. EST.