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A new high above 1,222.72 invalidated the main hourly Elliott wave count and added confidence to the alternate hourly Elliott wave count. The alternate has some support from volume analysis, and its target remains the same today.

Summary: In the short term, a bounce may continue higher for another day to about 1,232. This bounce at its end should offer an opportunity to join the larger downwards trend.

Profit target is now at 1,183 (measured rule) or 1,160 (Elliott wave).

Always use a stop and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. A new low on Friday below 1,214.81 cannot be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) within primary wave C, so now primary wave C must be over.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and has now provided strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149. A Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target, which is just above this common range, for intermediate wave (C) now that intermediate waves (A) and (B) look to be complete. At this stage, to try and see the whole of primary wave D complete at Monday’s low does not look right. The B-D trend line would be too steep for a normal looking contracting Elliott wave triangle, and primary wave D would have been far too brief at only 5 weeks duration. For the wave count to have the right look and good proportions (as Gold almost always does), primary wave D should not be labelled over yet.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. With a triangle complete in the position labelled intermediate wave (B), the idea of a zigzag unfolding lower is strengthened. This may not be labelled a second wave as second waves do not subdivide as triangles. Triangles appear in positions of fourth waves, B waves, or within combinations.

Intermediate wave (A) lasted only ten days. Intermediate wave (B) has lasted eight days. As intermediate wave (C) is expected to be longer in length than intermediate wave (A), it may also be longer in duration and may last a Fibonacci thirteen days as the first expectation or a Fibonacci twenty one days as the next expectation. So far it has lasted only eight days.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is much more likely; so let us assume that is the more likely structure until proven otherwise, or until some overlapping suggests a diagonal may be possible.

Within intermediate wave (C), minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,248.09.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 1 looks to have been over at the last low on the 10th of July. Minor wave 2 so far looks like it may be completing as a double zigzag. The 0.618 Fibonacci ratio is a reasonable target about 1,232. This coincides reasonably well with prior support at 1,236.50.

Within minor wave 2, the first zigzag labelled minute wave w fell slightly short of the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio. Minute wave x is brief and shallow, typical of X waves within multiple zigzags.

Minute wave y may now be deepening the correction, achieving the purpose of a double zigzag to have a clear slope.

Within minute wave y, the correction of minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) below 1,214.94. In the short term, a new low below 1,214.94 could not be a continuation of minuette wave (b), so at that stage either my labelling of minor wave 2 would be wrong, or it may be over already.

If price breaks below the cyan support line, that would provide a very strong signal that minor wave 2 should be over and minor wave 3 downwards should be underway.

Minor wave 2 may end now within the next 24 hours.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This chart offers strong support to the Elliott wave count.

The breach of the orange trend line by price is bearish. On Balance Volume gives a reasonable bearish signal, which should be given weight. Volume is bearish. ADX is slightly bearish. RSI is bearish.

Only ATR indicates weakness for the bigger picture (the Elliott wave triangle at the weekly chart level), but this does not preclude price from falling further here though.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

For StockCharts NY session only data, there is a long upper wick on today’s candlestick that is not as long as BarChart’s. This candlestick is slightly bearish. If another green candlestick completes for Thursday’s session with a long upper wick, that would be a very strong indication that the bounce should be over.

Volume and On Balance Volume today suggests the bounce is not over.

Look for strong resistance, and the bounce to end, at prior support of the pennant pattern at 1,236.50.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

With the last gap now closed, next resistance is about 22.80.

Some increase in volume during the last session for an upwards day (although it closed red) is slightly bullish for the short term. This in conjunction with On Balance Volume suggests the bounce is not over here.

This analysis is published @ 07:16 p.m. EST.