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Price has moved sideways and remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart. The correction is taking a little longer than expected.

Summary: In the short term, a bounce may continue higher for another one or two days now, to end about 1,228 to 1,232. This bounce at its end should offer an opportunity to join the larger downwards trend.

Profit target is now at 1,183 (measured rule) or 1,160 (Elliott wave).

Always use a stop and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. A new low on Friday below 1,214.81 cannot be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) within primary wave C, so now primary wave C must be over.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and has now provided strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149. A Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target, which is just above this common range, for intermediate wave (C) now that intermediate waves (A) and (B) look to be complete. At this stage, to try and see the whole of primary wave D complete at Monday’s low does not look right. The B-D trend line would be too steep for a normal looking contracting Elliott wave triangle, and primary wave D would have been far too brief at only 5 weeks duration. For the wave count to have the right look and good proportions (as Gold almost always does), primary wave D should not be labelled over yet.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. With a triangle complete in the position labelled intermediate wave (B), the idea of a zigzag unfolding lower is strengthened. This may not be labelled a second wave as second waves do not subdivide as triangles. Triangles appear in positions of fourth waves, B waves, or within combinations.

Intermediate wave (A) lasted only ten days. Intermediate wave (B) has lasted eight days. As intermediate wave (C) is expected to be longer in length than intermediate wave (A), it may also be longer in duration and may last a Fibonacci thirteen days as the first expectation or a Fibonacci twenty one days as the next expectation. So far it has lasted only nine days.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is much more likely; so let us assume that is the more likely structure until proven otherwise, or until some overlapping suggests a diagonal may be possible.

Within intermediate wave (C), minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,248.09.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 2 now looks like a single zigzag may be completing.

There are still multiple structural options within this correction for minor wave 2. Due to the greater variety of structures within corrections as compared to motive waves, it is impossible for me to tell you with a reasonable level of confidence exactly which structure will unfold. As a correction continues the labelling within it usually changes, so flexibility is important. For this reason it not advisable to try and trade the small movements within corrections.

The focus during corrections is to identify when they are over, when an opportunity to join the larger trend arises.

A $4 target zone is calculated for the bounce of minor wave 2 to end. If it takes another two days, it may total a Fibonacci five sessions.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,248.09.



Gold Weekly 2017
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This chart offers strong support to the Elliott wave count.

The breach of the orange trend line by price is bearish. On Balance Volume gives a reasonable bearish signal, which should be given weight. Volume is bearish. ADX is slightly bearish. RSI is bearish.

Only ATR indicates weakness for the bigger picture (the Elliott wave triangle at the weekly chart level), but this does not preclude price from falling further here though.


Gold Daily 2016
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Volume and On Balance Volume today still suggest the bounce is not over.

Look for strong resistance, and the bounce to end, at prior support of the pennant pattern at 1,236.50.



GDX Daily 2016
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With the last gap now closed, next resistance is about 22.80.

Looks like GDX’s upwards bounce is not yet over.

This analysis is published @ 07:03 p.m. EST.