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For Friday a bounce was expected to continue to about 1,228 to 1,232. Price bounced exactly as expected to reach a high of 1,231.73.

Summary: The bounce is over here, or it may be over on Monday with a very little more upwards movement. If price does move higher, it looks very limited with strong resistance above at 1,236.50. This bounce may be an opportunity to join the larger downwards trend.

Profit target is now at 1,183 (measured rule) or 1,160 (Elliott wave).

Always use a stop and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b. It has some support from declining ATR and MACD now beginning to hover about zero.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149. A Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target, which is just above this common range, for intermediate wave (C) now that intermediate waves (A) and (B) look to be complete. At this stage, to try and see the whole of primary wave D complete at Monday’s low does not look right. The B-D trend line would be too steep for a normal looking contracting Elliott wave triangle, and primary wave D would have been far too brief at only 5 weeks duration. For the wave count to have the right look and good proportions (as Gold almost always does), primary wave D should not be labelled over yet.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. With a triangle complete in the position labelled intermediate wave (B), the idea of a zigzag unfolding lower is strengthened. This may not be labelled a second wave as second waves do not subdivide as triangles. Triangles appear in positions of fourth waves, B waves, or within combinations.

Intermediate wave (A) lasted only ten days. Intermediate wave (B) has lasted eight days. As intermediate wave (C) is expected to be longer in length than intermediate wave (A), it may also be longer in duration and may last a Fibonacci thirteen days as the first expectation or a Fibonacci twenty one days as the next expectation. So far it has lasted only ten days.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is much more likely; so let us assume that is the more likely structure until proven otherwise, or until some overlapping suggests a diagonal may be possible.

Within intermediate wave (C), minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,248.09.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 2 now looks best as a completed zigzag. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

Minor wave 2 may have ended almost perfectly at the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1.

Minute wave c may have ended with a swift and strong fifth wave, typical of commodities. While this tendency is more common within Gold’s third waves, it can also show up in its C waves. That may have happened on Friday.

However, some doubt must be on this main hourly wave count due to volume analysis and the structure of the small wave down at the end of Friday’s session. On the five minute chart, this looks like a three wave structure and not a five. If it is a three, then the high is not in place.

A support trend line may serve better here than an Elliott channel. If price breaks below the cyan support line, then take that as a strong indication that the bounce is over and the next wave down is underway.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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I have tried to see minute wave a only over at Friday’s high and it will not fit. I have also considered a possible double zigzag structure but this does not have a very good look.

If minor wave 2 is continuing, then at this stage the best wave count would see it still as a single zigzag, with minute wave c incomplete.

Because minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 1,216.66, a new low below this point could not be minuette wave (iv), so at that stage minute wave c and minor wave 2 should be over.

If price breaks below the lower edge of the cyan trend line, this wave count would be discarded in favour of the main wave count.

The next Fibonacci ratio to calculate a target for minor wave 2 to end produces a target that looks to be too high. I do not have much confidence in this target. I have more confidence in resistance about 1,236.50. If minor wave 2 continues higher, it may be only by a little.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

After a breach of the orange trend line, price is now typically curving up for a back test. What would be most typical to see now would be for price to move down and away. That does not always happen, but because it happens much more often then it offers support to the Elliott wave count. The alternate hourly wave count would allow for a little more upwards movement to come up to touch the trend line; there is just a little room there.


Gold Daily 2016
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Volume suggests that the bounce is still not over. There is a little room for price to move higher.



GDX Daily 2016
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It looks a little more like the bounce may be over for GDX.

This analysis is published @ 11:49 p.m. EST on 15th July, 2017.