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The bounce has continued as the alternate hourly Elliott wave count expected.

Summary: There is very strong resistance close by at 1,236.50 which price may not be able to overcome. This is still expected to be a counter trend bounce that presents an opportunity to join the larger downwards trend. Very light volume today offers some support to this view.

If it continues a little higher, then expect this bounce to now end within the next 24 hours. The target at 1,242 – 1,247 may be too high

Profit target is now at 1,183 (measured rule) or 1,160 (Elliott wave).

Always use a stop and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b. It has some support from declining ATR and MACD now beginning to hover about zero.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149. A Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target, which is just above this common range, for intermediate wave (C) now that intermediate waves (A) and (B) look to be complete. At this stage, to try and see the whole of primary wave D complete at Monday’s low does not look right. The B-D trend line would be too steep for a normal looking contracting Elliott wave triangle, and primary wave D would have been far too brief at only 5 weeks duration. For the wave count to have the right look and good proportions (as Gold almost always does), primary wave D should not be labelled over yet.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. With a triangle complete in the position labelled intermediate wave (B), the idea of a zigzag unfolding lower is strengthened. This may not be labelled a second wave as second waves do not subdivide as triangles. Triangles appear in positions of fourth waves, B waves, or within combinations.

Intermediate wave (A) lasted only ten days. Intermediate wave (B) has lasted eight days. As intermediate wave (C) is expected to be longer in length than intermediate wave (A), it may also be longer in duration and may last a Fibonacci thirteen days as the first expectation or a Fibonacci twenty one days as the next expectation. So far it has lasted only eleven days.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is much more likely; so let us assume that is the more likely structure until proven otherwise, or until some overlapping suggests a diagonal may be possible.

Within intermediate wave (C), minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,248.09.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 2 may still be a completed zigzag. Minute wave c is now just 0.82 longer than equality in length with minute wave a.

An Elliott channel is now drawn about minor wave 2. Draw this from its start to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy on the end of minute wave a. When price breaks below the lower edge of this channel, it would provide confidence that minor wave 2 is over and minor wave 3 is underway.

MACD shows the middle of minute wave c labelled minuette wave (iii) is the strongest portion of upwards movement This wave count fits with MACD.

However, while price remains above the lower edge of the Elliott channel, it must be accepted that the alternate below may be right and price may yet move a little higher.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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If minor wave 2 is continuing, then at this stage the best wave count would see it still as a single zigzag with minute wave c incomplete.

The next Fibonacci ratio to calculate a target for minor wave 2 to end produces a target that looks to be too high, so I do not have much confidence in this target. I have more confidence in resistance about 1,236.50. If minor wave 2 continues higher, it may be only by a little.

The target for minor wave 2 to end is now widened to a zone calculated at two wave degrees. Favour the lower edge of the zone (but that still may be too high).



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

After a breach of the orange trend line, price is now typically curving up for a back test. What would be most typical to see now would be for price to move down and away. That does not always happen, but because it happens much more often then it offers support to the Elliott wave count.

This chart is updated today to show Monday’s movement.

Zooming in on this trend line it is still slightly above price, so there may still be a little room for the bounce to move higher. Resistance above is strong and now very close by. This bounce should now end within the next 24 hours.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Volume today suggests the bounce is more likely now to be over.

Little weight is given to the bullish crossover on MACD. Only if price can break above resistance at 1,236.50 would that be given more weight.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

For GDX more weight is given today to candlestick colour and upper wicks than the weak bullish signal today from On Balance Volume. It looks again like the bounce may be over here for GDX, and this view has some support now from declining volume.

This analysis is published @ 07:27 p.m. EST.