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A short term target at 1,264 has not been met; price has fallen $5.41 short. However, price did make a new high at the start of Monday’s session and overall upwards movement continues as expected.

Summary: A small consolidation may continue sideways and complete within the next 24 hours, to be followed by a final small upwards wave that may be about $18 in length but no longer than $23.25.

Classic technical analysis still offers more support for the main wave count than the alternate.

Always use a stop. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks possible and has the best fit for cycle wave b. It has some support from declining ATR and MACD now beginning to hover about zero.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. This is the most common sub-wave of the triangle to subdivide into a multiple.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Triangles normally adhere very well to their trend lines. So far the A-C trend line has been tested 11 times; this line has very strong technical significance. If this wave count is correct, then intermediate wave (B) should find very strong resistance if it gets up to the A-C trend line. A small overshoot is acceptable. A breach is not.

Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should now be expected to last a Fibonacci 13 or 21 weeks in total.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149. At this stage, to try and see the whole of primary wave D complete at last week’s low does not look right. The B-D trend line would be too steep for a normal looking contracting Elliott wave triangle, and primary wave D would have been far too brief at only 5 weeks duration. For the wave count to have the right look and good proportions (as Gold almost always does), primary wave D should not be labelled over yet.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag.

It is possible that only intermediate wave (A) was over at the last low and the current bounce is intermediate wave (B).

Intermediate wave (B) looks to be unfolding as a zigzag, a three wave structure. Corrective waves have a count of 3, 7, 11, 15 etc. Each extension adds another 4. So far intermediate wave (B) has a count of 5 on the daily chart, and so a further 2 is required to total 7. The structure cannot be complete at this stage. This means that another small consolidation lasting about two days should unfold along the way upwards to end intermediate wave (B).

So far intermediate wave (B) has lasted 10 days and the structure is incomplete. The next Fibonacci number in the sequence is 13, which would see intermediate wave (B) end in a further three days.

Within the zigzag of primary wave D, intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) above 1,295.65.

While it is still possible that intermediate wave (B) may end close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (A) at 1,260, it now looks less likely. When minute waves iii and iv are complete, then a new target will be calculated at minor and minute degree for the final high of intermediate wave (B).


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Upwards movement may be a zigzag for intermediate wave (B). Zigzags subdivide 5-3-5, exactly the same as the start of an impulse.

Minor waves A and B look correct. Minor wave C must be a five wave structure.

Use the best fit channel as a guide to upwards movement and for trading. When price moves into the lower half of the channel, then minute wave iii may be over and minute wave iv may be underway. Minute wave iv may find support at the lower edge of the channel. That may provide another entry point to join the upwards trend.

Minute wave ii was a shallow flat correction lasting two days on the daily chart. Minute wave iv may exhibit alternation as a more shallow zigzag. It may complete within the next 24 hours and last overall about two days on the daily chart, which would give the wave count good proportion at both hourly and daily time frames.

When minute wave iv is over, then a target and limit may be calculated for minute wave v. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, which makes it more likely that minute wave v would exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either. The most likely would be 0.618 the length of minute wave i, about $18.

If this wave count is invalidated by downwards movement below 1,244.28, then it may be possible that intermediate wave (B) could be over.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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This wave count has been published only in historical analysis. At this stage, it will be published on a daily basis.

There are more than 23 possible corrective structures that B waves may take, and although cycle wave b fits best at this stage as a triangle (main wave count), it may still be another structure. This wave count looks at the possibility that it may be a double zigzag.

If cycle wave b is a double zigzag, then current upwards movement may be part of the second zigzag in the double, labelled primary wave Y.

The biggest problem with this wave count is the structure of intermediate wave (A). This upwards wave looks very much like a three and not a five. This upwards wave must be seen as a five for this wave count to work.

Within the second zigzag of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) is a completed regular flat correction. Minor wave C ends just slightly below the end of minor wave A avoiding a truncation. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

The target remains the same as previously published for this wave count.

Along the way up, some resistance should be expected at the cyan Magee trend line.

Within intermediate wave (C), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,205.41.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (C) may be unfolding as an impulse. So far minor waves 1 and 2 may be complete. It is common for Gold to exhibit short first waves and very long extended third waves.

When minor wave 3 is complete, then minor wave 4 may not move down into minor wave 1 price territory below 1,225.33.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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A-B-C of a zigzag subdivides 5-3-5. This is exactly the same as 1-2-3 of an impulse. Both wave counts at the hourly chart level may have the same subdivisions.

The target for minor wave 3 is reasonable given that minor wave 1 was very short. This is not an uncommon Fibonacci ratio for Gold, and it fits with the higher target for minor wave 5 to end primary wave Y.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. So far only minor waves 1 and 2 may be complete. This wave count now expects to see a further increase in upwards momentum as a third wave at two degrees moves higher. This should also have strong support from volume.

If this wave count is correct, then either or both of minute wave iii and minor wave 3 may end with blow off tops.

At this stage, the middle of the third wave for this alternate is unlikely to have passed; the degree of labelling for the last five up is one degree lower than the main wave count. The subdivisions are still the same. Minuette wave (ii) should remain contained within the channel, so the invalidation point is left as is.

Minute wave (iv) may not move into minute wave (i) price territory below 1,244.28.



Gold Weekly 2017
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A lack of support for upwards movement from volume favours the main Elliott wave count.

ADX and ATR favour the main Elliott wave count.


Gold Daily 2016
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A small spinning top candlestick indicates indecision for Monday, a balance of bulls and bears. The balance of volume for the session was down and the candlestick closed red. During the session, volume did not support downwards movement and this is read as bullish. This session looks like a small pause within an ongoing upwards trend.

Strongly declining ATR along with contracting Bollinger Bands indicate something may be wrong with this upwards movement. It lacks range and normal widening of volatility. This does not so far look like a normal healthy trend. This is typical of B waves. This favours the main Elliott wave count.



GDX Daily 2016
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GDX has reacted downwards just below the 200 day moving average. The volume profile is bearish.

Be aware that the correlation between GDX and Gold is unreliable. Although they are currently strongly positively correlated, their past behaviour absolutely shows that this correlation does not necessarily have to persist. In fact, we should assume that it may not and the correlation may be broken any day.

Published @ 08:20 p.m. EST.