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A pullback was expected when price made a new low below 1,244.28, but it was expected to be a little deeper though: price fell $6 short of the first target at 1,238.

The overall trend remains up, which still fits the Elliott wave count.

Summary: For now the trend is up, but it may be coming to an end in one more session to a few days. Use the blue Elliott channel on the main daily and hourly chart. Assume the trend remains upwards while price remains within the channel. The target is at 1,277.

When this channel is breached by downwards movement, that shall indicate a trend change.

Always use a stop. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks possible and has the best fit for cycle wave b. It has some support from declining ATR and MACD now beginning to hover about zero.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. This is the most common sub-wave of the triangle to subdivide into a multiple.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Triangles normally adhere very well to their trend lines. So far the A-C trend line has been tested 11 times; this line has very strong technical significance. If this wave count is correct, then intermediate wave (B) should find very strong resistance if it gets up to the A-C trend line. A small overshoot is acceptable. A breach is not. If price reaches up to that trend line in the next one to few days, it would offer a good entry point for a short position. Stops then may be set a little above the line, or just above the invalidation point.

Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should now be expected to last a Fibonacci 13 or 21 weeks in total.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149. At this stage, to try and see the whole of primary wave D complete at last week’s low does not look right. The B-D trend line would be too steep for a normal looking contracting Elliott wave triangle, and primary wave D would have been far too brief at only 5 weeks duration. For the wave count to have the right look and good proportions (as Gold almost always does), primary wave D should not be labelled over yet.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag.

With only intermediate wave (A) complete and now intermediate wave (B) a large and deep correction, primary wave D is beginning to look very typically like a large exaggerated zigzag.

Intermediate wave (B) looks to be unfolding as a zigzag, a three wave structure. Corrective waves have a count of 3, 7, 11, 15 etc. Each extension adds another 4. So far intermediate wave (B) has a count of 7 on the daily chart, so it may now possibly be complete at any stage.

Draw an Elliott channel about the zigzag of intermediate wave (B). Use this as a guide to when it may be over. When price breaks below the lower edge, that may be taken as an indication of a trend change.

So far intermediate wave (B) has lasted 12 days. The next Fibonacci number in the sequence is 13, which would see intermediate wave (B) end in a further one day.

Within the zigzag of primary wave D, intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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After analysis of the five minute chart, upwards movement for this last session is labelled as an incomplete minor wave C.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave motive structure. It is unfolding as an impulse. On the five minute chart, upwards movement today began with a series of three overlapping first and second waves (only two degrees can be shown on the hourly chart). Upwards movement for this session looks like an incomplete impulse.

Because minor wave A was so long, minor wave C should be shorter. Were minor wave C to reach equality in length with minor wave A that would take price above the invalidation point at 1,295.65. The target uses the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio for this reason.

If minor wave C is expected to be shorter in length than minor wave A, then it would most likely also be shorter in duration. Minor wave A was a stretched out extension. The guideline of alternation may be applied here to expect minor wave C to not be extended.

If minor wave C is not extended, then it may not show the subdivisions within it at the daily chart level. Minute waves ii and iv may be over more quickly, as corrections within a session and not multi day corrections.

Within minor wave C, minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,246.46 (this point is taken exactly from analysis of the five minute chart, which is intra hour).



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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This wave count has been published only in historical analysis. At this stage, it will be published on a daily basis.

There are more than 23 possible corrective structures that B waves may take, and although cycle wave b fits best at this stage as a triangle (main wave count), it may still be another structure. This wave count looks at the possibility that it may be a double zigzag.

If cycle wave b is a double zigzag, then current upwards movement may be part of the second zigzag in the double, labelled primary wave Y.

The biggest problem with this wave count is the structure of intermediate wave (A) within primary wave Y. This upwards wave looks very much like a three and not a five. This upwards wave must be seen as a five for this wave count to work.

Within the second zigzag of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) is a completed regular flat correction. Minor wave C ends just slightly below the end of minor wave A avoiding a truncation. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

The target remains the same as previously published for this wave count.

Along the way up, some resistance should be expected at the cyan Magee trend line.

Within intermediate wave (C), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,205.41.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (C) may be unfolding as an impulse.

Minor wave 2 may be over as a very quick and shallow zigzag. Strong upwards movement at the end of this session may be the start of minor wave 3.

Because minor wave 1 was a long extension, the target for minor wave 3 is for equality with minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,244.01.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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If minor wave 3 for this alternate is to be an extension reaching equality with minor wave 1, then its subdivisions may show up on the daily chart like those for minor wave 1 do.

Minute wave i may be incomplete. Within minute wave i, the upcoming correction for minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 1,246.46.

When minute wave i could be a complete five wave impulse, then the next correction for minute wave ii should find strong support at the lower edge of the blue base channel. A breach of that channel would put significant doubt on this alternate wave count. A new low at that stage below the start of minor wave 3 at 1,244.01 would invalidate it.



Gold Weekly 2017
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A lack of support for upwards movement from volume favours the main Elliott wave count.

ADX and ATR favour the main Elliott wave count.


Gold Daily 2016
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Volume and the candlestick wick are both bullish today. This supports both Elliott wave counts for the short term.

ATR and Bollinger Bands both still support the main Elliott wave count over the alternate.



GDX Daily 2016
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While volume is bullish, Stochastics indicates some weakness within upwards movement. This may develop further before a high may be in place, or it may disappear.

There is room for more upwards movement; RSI is not yet overbought. Next resistance is about 23.50.

Published @ 09:41 p.m. EST.