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Some upwards movement was expected, which is exactly what has happened.

Summary: Expect a small bounce to end either about 1,228 – 1,230, or a little below 1,228. Thereafter, look out for strong downwards movement.

This correction is an opportunity to join the trend. Stops may be set at prior support, which may now be resistance about 1,240, or for those with a higher risk appetite just above 1,248.09.

Profit target is now at 1,160.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. However, at the weekly chart level, it looks possible it may continue higher. This possibility must be acknowledged while price remains above 1,214.81. Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (Y) may now be a complete zigzag if it is accepted that a triangle completed in the position labelled minor wave B. This has a perfect fit on the hourly chart.

A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and would provide strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149. A Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target, which is just above this common range, for intermediate wave (C) now that intermediate waves (A) and (B) look to be complete.

The point in time when an Elliott wave triangle’s trend lines cross over often (not always) sees a trend change. That point in time is now, so this offers some slight support to the alternate hourly wave count below. This trend change is not always a large one; it may be a smaller change within a consolidation.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. Within intermediate wave (C), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,248.09.

Intermediate wave (A) lasted only ten days. Intermediate wave (B) has lasted eight days. As intermediate wave (C) is expected to be longer in length than intermediate wave (A), it may also be longer in duration and may last a Fibonacci thirteen days as the first expectation or a Fibonacci twenty one days as the next expectation.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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At this stage, it looks like minor wave 2 may be completing as a very common double combination. The first structure in the double is a completed expanded flat correction. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a double zigzag labelled minute wave x.

The second structure in the double may be either a zigzag (most likely), triangle, or flat correction for a double flat. Double flats are actually very rare though, so let us assume a more likely double combination.

The purpose of a second structure in a double combination is to take up time and move price sideways. Combinations unfold when the first corrective structure does not take long enough. The second structure normally ends close to the same level as the first to achieve a sideways look. Minute wave y may be expected to end close to 1,228, or maybe slightly higher to reach the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 1,230.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,248.09.

The trend is down. All trades should be with the trend. Always use a stop. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that minor wave 2 is over already, but this alternate must be judged to have a lower probability. If minor wave 2 is over, then it is very brief and shallow. While this is possible, it is less likely than the main wave count.

If minor wave 2 is over, then the first wave down within minor wave 3 is labelled minuette wave (i). This wave subdivides well as a leading contracting diagonal.

First wave leading diagonals are commonly followed by very deep corrections. Expect minuette wave (ii) to be deeper than the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 1,228.95.

Both hourly wave counts essentially expect the same movement next. The difference is in how high this current small bounce is expected to be. This alternate expects a more shallow bounce to remain below 1,228.95, whereas the main hourly wave count expects the bounce may end slightly above that point.

Thereafter, both hourly wave counts expect a third wave down to develop and show an increase in momentum.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The weekly chart is updated: a trend line is added (orange) to show the breach on the 3rd of July. This break below support is significant. This is a strong bearish signal.

Volume last week supports the downwards trend at least short term.

If On Balance Volume breaks below the purple support line, it would offer a bearish signal. If it bounces up from this line, it would offer a bullish signal.

Declining ATR for a long time fits neatly with the expectation of a large triangle unfolding.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The downwards breakout from the pennant had support from volume. The following day made a new low and had a lower high, the definition of downwards movement, but the candlestick closed green and had a balance of volume upwards during the session. This upwards movement for the 5th of July has support from volume, so this is bullish for the short term.

The spinning top candlestick for the 5th of July looks like a pause in the downwards trend. This is typical after a strong movement. Now the 6th of July looks like a continuation of that pause.

Prior support was at 1,236. It would still be typical to see price curve up to test resistance there now. On Balance Volume allows for a little more upwards movement before it finds resistance.

The trend is down. Corrections are an opportunity to join the trend.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price has broken out downwards from the consolidation, but the breakout is suspicious because it is not supported by volume. But we must keep in mind that not all downwards breakouts are supported by volume though; the market can fall of its own weight.

If the gap is correctly labelled as a breakaway gap, then the upper edge should offer resistance. Breakaway gaps are not usually closed. This resistance is at 21.88.

For the very short term, volume is slightly bullish supporting the idea that price may continue a little higher here to test resistance again.

This analysis is published @ 07:31 p.m. EST.