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A small bounce to about 1,228 to 1,230 was expected before downwards movement resumed, but this is not what happened. The high was already in place.

Summary: The trend is down. Corrections, even small ones, present an opportunity to join the trend.

Profit target is now at 1,160.

Always use a stop and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly charts and alternate weekly charts are here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

At this stage, it looks like primary wave C is now complete at the hourly and daily chart level. A new low on Friday below 1,214.81 cannot be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) within primary wave C, so now primary wave C must be over.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.

There are three alternate wave counts that have been published in the last historic analysis, which is linked to above. They are all very bullish. They will only be published on a daily basis if price shows them to be true with a new high now above 1,295.65.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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A new low below 1,214.81 could not be minor wave B within intermediate wave (Y) and has now provided strong confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is over.

A common range for triangle sub-waves is from about 0.8 to 0.85 the prior sub-wave, this gives a range for primary wave D from 1,158 to 1,149. A Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target, which is just above this common range, for intermediate wave (C) now that intermediate waves (A) and (B) look to be complete.

The point in time when an Elliott wave triangle’s trend lines cross over often (not always) sees a trend change. This technique appears to have worked albeit not perfectly. It expected a trend change on the 5th of July, but the end of minor wave 2 came a few hours later within the 6th of July.

If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a simple A-B-C structure and would most likely be a zigzag. With a triangle complete in the position labelled intermediate wave (B), the idea of a zigzag unfolding lower is strengthened. This may not be labelled a second wave as second waves do not subdivide as triangles. Triangles appear in positions of fourth waves, B waves, or within combinations.

Intermediate wave (A) lasted only ten days. Intermediate wave (B) has lasted eight days. As intermediate wave (C) is expected to be longer in length than intermediate wave (A), it may also be longer in duration and may last a Fibonacci thirteen days as the first expectation or a Fibonacci twenty one days as the next expectation. So far it has lasted only five days.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is much more likely; so let us assume that is the more likely structure until proven otherwise, or until some overlapping suggests a diagonal may be possible.

Within intermediate wave (C), minor waves 1 and 2 are now complete. Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,228.96.

Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C may have been complete in 25 weeks.

Primary wave D should be expected to last at least 8 weeks (but most likely longer). The next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence would be a Fibonacci 13 and then 21.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave 2 was over as a brief and shallow expanded flat correction.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as a simple impulse. It may be close to complete if the target is correct. At 1,201 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

When minor wave 3 is complete, then the invalidation point for minor wave 4 moves down slightly to the end of minor wave 1 at 1,219.05.

So far, within the impulse of minor wave 3, minute wave iii may be incomplete. Minute wave iii must subdivide as an impulse, and within it minuette wave (iv) may not move back up into minuette wave (i) price territory above 1,219.98.

Minuette wave (ii) was a deep expanded flat correction. Given the guideline of alternation,, expect minuette wave (iv) to be a more shallow single or multiple zigzag. The preferred target for it to end would be the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (iii) at 1,214. Use the channel about minuette wave (iv) to see when it may be over and for confirmation it is over. It may end if price comes up to touch the upper edge of the small orange channel. When that channel is breached by downwards movement, that shall indicate minuette wave (iv) as over and minuette wave (v) as most likely underway.

Minor wave 2 shows up on the daily chart lasting three days. For the wave count at the daily chart level to have the right look, minor wave 4 should also show up on the daily chart lasting a few days. Minor wave 4 may be the next multi day interruption to this downwards trend.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This chart offers strong support to the Elliott wave count.

The breach of the orange trend line by price is bearish. On Balance Volume gives a reasonable bearish signal, which should be given weight. Volume is bearish. ADX is slightly bearish. RSI is bearish.

Only ATR indicates weakness for the bigger picture (the Elliott wave triangle at the weekly chart level), but this does not preclude price from falling further here though.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price has bounced up from support, just below 1,210, on Friday. It looks reasonable to now expect the target given by the measured rule at 1,183 to be met, at least, and if not then the lower Elliott wave target at 1,160.

Volume is bearish. ADX is bearish.

On Balance Volume gives no signal for the short term; it is range bound.

Stochastics may remain extreme for long periods of time during a strong trend. Double divergence between price and Stochastics may signal a bounce here, or some weakness within the trend, but it should not be read as signalling an end to the trend here.

For the short term, this daily chart is less clearly bearish than the weekly chart, but it still indicates more downwards movement.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

GDX looks a little more clearly bearish for the short term than Gold.

Give weight to the bearish signal from On Balance Volume here. But give little weight to bullish divergence between price and Stochastics, because it can persist and develop further before a trend change.

The long lower wick on Friday’s candlestick is bullish.

This analysis is published @ 02:32 a.m. EST on 9th July, 2017.